The president’s agenda: Shovel-ready jobs, Obamacare, Dodd-Frank.
Unfortunately, the first wasn't realized while the other two were.
Shovel-ready jobs: The president has stated that he was unaware of the short supply of shovel-ready jobs: poor planning, at best.
Obamacare: The president unilaterally excused thousands of entities from Obamacare: many actually supported the legislation. Apparently, supporters of the legislation prefer that it not apply to them.
Dodd-Frank: This legislation lacks proactive incentives to increase financial stability, requires hundreds of additional, unknown rules to be issued, and, most importantly, excludes a major cause of the crisis from its jurisdiction: government sponsored entities, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The agenda of the president is anathema to job creation:
1. Promotes less productive endeavors
2. Injects a large degree of uncertainty into the system.
The principle objective for the president should have been:
The creation of a stable, equitable environment for entrepreneurs to create and innovate.
This economic template would provide positive incentives that drive value added investment and employment.
Consider the following data since the onset of our recent recession:
1. 10 million person increase in the working age population (to 242 million).
2. Labor force remained constant, or 0 percent growth (at 154 million).
a. Grew nearly 2 percent annually since 1948.
b. 0 percent growth from 2008-2011.
2. Employment fell 4 million, or 3 percent (to 142 million).
3. Employment as a percentage of working age individuals fell 5 percentage points (to 58.5 percent).
a. Approaching the level present during the 1950’s and 1960’s before women entered the labor force in significant numbers.
4. 5.5 million are unemployed for more than 26 weeks (long term unemployment).
a. 42 percent of all unemployed.
b. 4 percent of labor force (nearly 4 times historical average of 1 percent).
5. 8.2 million work part time, but prefer to work full-time.
a. Considered employed.
b. Reduces recorded unemployment rate.
6. 2.8 million would like to work full-time, but are not actively seeking employment.
a. Excluded from labor force
b. Reduces the recorded unemployment rate.
7. Current total non-farm employment is slightly lower than what it was more than a decade ago (at 132 million).
This data, in concert with my recent columns, portend weak short term economic conditions.
My column of Aug. 26, 2011, suggested a recession in 2012 was probable.
Apparently, more and more economists now concur with my assessment.
This scenario won't bode well for the president this November.
In the future, I will focus on a more productive job creation paradigm.
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