It may be a bit early to say I told you so, but recent events including one of the coldest winters in memory and reams of new data concerning global cooling, make what I wrote on Dec. 26, 2007 worth a new look.
In that column, an open letter to Al Gore, I wrote: "In my 1997 11-part series published on Wednesday on the Web (http://pvbr.com — check it out) I laid out the case for a new ice age aborning.
"Among the facts cited in that series of reports were the sort of events that preceded the onset of ice ages — in a word incredible violence — monster storms, destructive tectonic events such as huge volcanic eruptions, and all sorts of climatic disasters. I think we're just about there and that this year the violence will be revved up substantially.
“I hope I'm wrong, but I think we're about to endure the very worst winter in memory. Last year's 14 foot snowfall may be dwarfed this year by as much as 20 feet. Why? Well those record rainfalls we saw last summer, over 20 inches of rain in one storm in a number of places, give adequate warning of what can happen in wintertime when precipitation falls as snow — 20 inches of rain equals 20 feet of snow.
“That's why I think that Al Gore will be trading in his Nobel Peace prize for a dunce cap this year.
"Al, get ready for a fitting for the dunce cap. Mother Nature has spoken loud and clear — global cooling is setting in.
Doubt that? Take a look at these recent headlines:Earth's 'Fever' Breaks: Global COOLING Currently Under Way; Report: Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling (Daily Tech – February 26, 2008;Forget Global Warming: Welcome to the new Ice Age (Canada's National Post – Feb. 25, 2008);Arctic Sea Ice Sees 'Significant Increase' in Size Following 'Extreme Cold' (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation -CBC – February 15, 2008);Ice between Canada and Greenland reaches highest level in 15 years (Greenland’s Sermitsiak News – February 12, 2008);NewPeer-Reviewed Study Shows Arctic COOLING Over last 1500 years; Antarctic Summer Thaw 'Later Than Normal' (AccuWeather Global Warming News – February 6, 2008;Report: Sun's 'disturbingly quiet' cycle prompts fear of global COOLING (February 8, 2008 - Investor’s Business Daily);Solar data suggest our concerns should be about global cooling – (By Geologist David Archibald of Summa Development Limited in Australia – March 2008 Scientific Paper);Report: Too Much Ice = Polar Bears Starving? (Scientist Philip Stott’s Global Warming Politics – February 15, 2008);Report: Solar Activity Diminishes; Researchers Predict Another Ice Age - Sunspots have all but vanished in recent years. (Daily Tech – February 9, 2008);Scientist predicts 'Coming of a New Ice Age' (Winningreen February 2008."
In a recent report to Marc Morano of the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Don J. Easterbrook of Western Washington University who has written eight books, 150 journal publications, and presented 30 research papers at international meetings in 12 countries outside the U.S. wrote:
"1. We've been on a predicted cooling trend since 2002. The average of the four main temperature measuring methods is slightly cooler since 2002 (except for a brief el Nino interruption) and record breaking cooling this winter. The argument that this is too short a time period to be meaningful would be valid were it not for the fact that this cooling exactly fits the pattern of timing of warm/cool cycles over the past 400 years and was predicted.
"2. We are entering a solar cycle of much reduced sun spots, very similar to that which accompanied the change from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age, which virtually all scientists agree was caused by Solar variation. Thus, we seem to be headed for cooler temperatures as a result of reduce solar irradiance.
"3. Sea surface temperatures in the NE Pacific mirror the atmospheric observations of cooling since 2002.
"4. Some glaciers are slowing their rate of retreat in response to the past 6 years of cooling. (They aren't readvancing yet because it takes Awhile for a turnaround.
" So what is the significance of the present globally icy winter and slight cooling for the past six years? By itself, it’s weather and arguably not statistically important. However, when considered in the light of the past six-year cooling trend, the continuation of that pattern is important because if we are to believe the IPCC’s prediction of a 1 degree F warming by 2011, that will require warming of almost 1 degree F in the next three years!
“The IPCC recasts its predictions every year to match actual conditions so they appear to stay ‘on-track.’ However, they made finite predictions some years ago and if IPCC is to remain credible, those predictions need to be accountable. In a nutshell, in 2001, I put my reputation on the line and published my predictions for entering a global cooling cycle about 2007 (plus or minus 3-5 years), based on past glacial, ice core, and other data.
“As of right now, my prediction seems to be right on target and what we would expect from the past climatic record, but the IPCC prediction is getting farther and farther off the mark. With the apparent solar cooling cycle upon us, we have a ready explanation for global warming and cooling. If the present cooling trend continues, th IPCC reports will have been the biggest farce in the history of science."
Get ready for your dunce cap, Al, and button up your overcoat.
I rest my case.
Phil Brennan is a veteran journalist and World War II Marine who writes for Newsmax.com. He is editor and publisher of Wednesday on the Web (http://www.pvbr.com) and was Washington columnist for National Review magazine in the 1960s.
He also served as a staff aide for the House Republican Policy Committee and helped handle the Washington public relations operation for the Alaska Statehood Committee which won statehood for Alaska.
He is also a trustee of the Lincoln Heritage Institute and a member of the Association For Intelligence Officers.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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