Stewart Stogel
Thursday, March 27, 2003

The expert, who requested anonymity, says that Baghdad "most likely" has shut down its WMD operations. He added that any munitions it may still possess "are most likely now in the field."

The former U.N. official explained that any chemical or biological weapons are now "being moved around the country."

"[The weapons] could be in railroad cars, barges or refrigerator trucks. They are being kept on the move," explained the former official.

The arms expert says by keeping the weapons on the move, they make an attack by coalition forces more difficult. Furthermore, he explained, they could be shifted around the country as "conditions warrant."

The Pentagon has repeatedly complained to the U.N. about suspected bio agents being shuffled around Iraq in "refrigerator vans."

Chief U.N. arms inspector Dr. Hans Blix told the Security Council in February that his teams had "been unable to track down the refrigerator vans in question."

The possible use of WMD might explain the movement of substantial numbers of Iraqi Republican Guard units to the south of Baghdad to confront the advancing U.S. forces in the last two days.

Warning: Don't Fall Into Trap

The U.N. inspector believes that the Pentagon must be careful not to fall into an Iraqi trap.

"If Iraq still has chemical weapons it wants to use, it would want to cause as much damage as possible in one short attack. Therefore, the U.S. needs to be careful not to amass large numbers of troops in any central location."

The most likely attack would come from more than "800 unaccounted 155mm artillery shells which may contain mustard gas."

"The Iraqis have problems delivering their WMD in a militarily effective manner," he added.

The U.N. inspector revealed that more than "70 percent" of Baghdad's declared and suspected WMD were in "aerial" form. That means they were designed to be delivered by aircraft.

Since Operation Desert Storm, the Iraqi air force has almost ceased to exist. In February 1991, Saddam sent his best jets into Iran to escape coalition forces. Tehran has never allowed those aircraft to return.

Saddam may still possess small drone aircraft capable of delivering these weapons in aerosolized form.

The U.N. inspector also added that any biological weapons that Iraq might still possess would "not cause much of a problem for the U.S. forces."

He explained that the Pentagon is familiar with most or all of Baghdad's suspected bioweapons and Washington has taken steps to neutralize these agents if U.S. soldiers are attacked.

One other aspect about Iraq's exotic weapons programs involved the use of psychotropic agents similar to LSD.

"They were not meant to kill, just incapacitate, confuse," said the inspector.

He explained this was designed more as a response to fight off ragtag Iranian forces in the late 1980s rather than the U.S. military.

"My guess is that the probability of a WMD attack is small," says the former UNSCOM official.

"Right now, Saddam has 80 percent of the world supporting him. If he used WMD, that support would dissolve. So he has no incentive. Even if he did, it would not cause enough damage to change anything. About the only thing he may accomplish is to scare you reporters."

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
Saddam Hussein/Iraq

Editor's note:
World’s leading bioweapons experts warns of smallpox catastrophe – Click here now