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Saturday, Dec. 6, 2003

People are increasingly comfortable about job security for themselves and for those they know: 44 percent now, compared with 35 percent in early October.

And more approve of the way Bush is handling the economy: 50 percent compared with 45 percent earlier, according to the poll, conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Support for his handling of other domestic issues such as education and health care, at 47 percent, has not shifted significantly.

The president's re-election numbers have slightly improved, with 41 percent saying they will definitely vote for him and 36 percent definitely against him. One in five is considering voting for someone else. In mid-November, people were evenly split, 37 percent for and against.

"I'm mulling over what I'm going to do in the next election," said Eydee Nelson, a mother of two young girls in Fort Collins, Colo. "I feel like the economy is picking up. That definitely makes me more sympathetic to the president's re-election," said Nelson, who turned 32 on Friday.

The economy is showing mixed signs of recovery: rapid growth that surprised most economists last quarter, indications the job market could be turning around, a rebound in the stock market over the past six months. But the nation has lost 2.3 million jobs, the turnaround in employment is uncertain, and states hard hit by revenue losses are making cuts.

Baby boomers, college graduates and men in general were among the groups more likely to show signs of increased optimism in the AP-Ipsos poll.

'Trend, Not a Blip'

"Confidence is improving," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo in Minneapolis. "It's a trend, not a blip. While it's not at the level it was in 1999 and 2000, we clearly are coming off the bottom."

The poll found the percentage of people who say they're more comfortable about job security is higher than for those who say they're not, 44 percent to 37 percent. In early October, more were uncomfortable.

If the economy continues to improve, Bush is expected to benefit.

"If things are going well, it's more than likely he'll get a good bit of credit for it," said Doreen Hartley, a 48-year-old computer programmer who lives in Newtown, Pa., near Philadelphia.

While improvements in Bush's ratings were usually small, the upward shifts were reflected in several poll questions. The public remains sharply divided about the president, but the economic optimism seems to have halted his slide in the polls. Also, his Thanksgiving trip to visit the troops in Baghdad was generally well-received.

Bush's job approval among registered voters was at 53 percent, with 44 percent disapproving. In mid-November, his approval was at 50 percent, so the shift is not as much as the poll's 3.5-point margin of error for registered voters.

The public's overall mood about the direction of the country was slightly improved from November.

In the new poll, 43 percent said the country was headed in the right direction, and 51 percent said it was on the wrong track. In mid-November, 38 percent had a positive view, and 56 percent said wrong track.

Divisions on Bush are still apparent.

"I think he does a good job on some things," said Bill Rogers, a 69-year-old retiree from Farnsworth, Texas. "On other things like the war in Iraq, I think he made a mistake."

While a majority of people support the president on foreign policy and the campaign on terror, they remain closely divided on his re-election.

Joseph Caporino of Hoboken, N.J. said he would consider voting for someone other than Bush.

'No Sense Putting Another Jerk In'

"It depends on the other candidates in the race and what they have to say," the 54-year-old account manager said. "There's no sense putting another jerk in there. At least Bush has already been in for a while."

The AP-Ipsos poll of 1,001 adults was taken Dec. 1-3 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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© 2003 Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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