Dr. Alexandr Nemets and Dr. Thomas Torda
Monday, Nov. 5, 2001

The events of the month following, however, clearly showed the Kremlin's two-faced policy.

In fact, despite Russian claims of cooperation with the U.S., Russia continues to pursue its own policy vis-à-vis Afghanistan and Central Asia – a policy completely at odds with the U.S. and West's current struggle against terrorism.

We know, for example, that Moscow did its best to block the flights of U.S. military aircraft to Tashkent, thus limiting deployment of U.S. troops in Uzbekistan and U.S. military-technological support for the the Northern Alliance army headed by Gen. Dostum.

Dostum has been trying to take over the strategic stronghold of Mazar-e-Sharif city, 40 km south of the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan border.

The success of Dostum in this strategic drive could lead to a major defeat of the Taliban over all of northern Afghanistan.

But evidence makes it plain that Russia really isn't interested in helping the U.S.

Russia Blocks Flights

As Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported in October, "Both Moscow and Tehran are against the flights of U.S. military aircraft over the Caspian Sea, from Turkey to Uzbekistan, as discussed during the recent visit of Iranian Defense Minister Shamkhani to Moscow."

After several U.S. flights took this path in late September, Russian Army Chief of General Staff Gen. Anatoliy Kvashnin went to Armenia, inspected air defense systems belonging to local Russian troops and Armenian troops, and explained to Armenian leaders that U.S. military planes would not be tolerated in Armenia's airspace.

Kvashnin's move effectively limited U.S. operations that would have aided Dostum's plans to take the Mazar-e-Sharif stronghold.

Now, the U.S. will have to supply and support its troops in Uzbekistan by using an air route over Pakistan and Afghanistan. This route is both unsuitable and quite dangerous.

Russia Backs One Group

The so-called Northern Alliance in reality contains two major groups. Both are united against the Taliban, but differences are significant.

1. A Tajik group controls northeastern Afghanistan from the Taijikistani border almost down to Kabul. This group, which has the firm support of Dushanbe (Tajikistan's capital) and of Moscow, is purchasing weaponry from Russia – despite reports of Moscow's "donations" – for hard currency, mostly obtained by selling heroin inside Russia.

2. An Uzbek group is supported from Tashkent and is absolutely not supported by Russia; to the contrary, Moscow is creating problems for this opposition faction. This was another factor that hindered Dostum's ability to take Mazar-e-Sharif. Only large-scale U.S. aid to this group could change the situation and provide victory here.

Mazar-e-Sharif Is Key to Entire War

In particular, after its fall and the establishment of Dostum's control over all territory between that city and the Uzbek border, about 1,000 U.S. Special Forces would cross the border (the Amu-Darya River) and enter Afghanistan. Thus, a huge piece of the country would be cleansed of the Taliban.

But again, Russia has played a blocking role, undercutting Gen. Dostum's ability to take the city.

Moscow's attitude toward Uzbekistan and Dostum's army became even worse when, on Oct. 12, the U.S. pledged to protect the security of Uzbekistan – in exchange for permission for U.S. armed forces to use Uzbekistani air bases.

Putin Wants Limited War

On Oct. 20 in Shanghai, Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Putin agreed that the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan should end as soon as possible. China promised full support for all actions of Moscow in that region.

According to Moscow media reports on Oct. 23-24, a mini-summit of Putin, Tajikistani President Rakhmonov and Afghan "President in Exile" Rabbani took place in Dushanbe on Oct. 21.

Putin, traveling to Dushanbe directly from the APEC Summit in Shanghai, was accompanied by Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and FSB Chief Patrushev. It was confirmed during this meeting that Tajikistan has been chosen as a strategic ally of Russia in Central Asia, in regard to the conflict in Afghanistan.

At the same time, Moscow's support for U.S. military actions in Afghanistan will be limited – if there is any support at all.

The major differences between the U.S. and Russia became clear at the Shanghai summit: Bush intends to provide maximum autonomy to the northern provinces of Afghanistan, mainly those close to the Uzbek border.

Moscow, on the other hand, is pushing for a centralized leadership – meaning the Kabul-based Rabbani government, controlled from Dushanbe, and in effect eventually from Moscow.

By late October, the Tajik-dominated military group controlled northeastern Afghanistan, i.e., 15 percent of the country.

This is a Moscow-oriented army. According to Moscow's designs, just this group will be the decisive one in a postwar Afghanistan.

Also by late October, the U.S. had the unconditional support of only one military group, Gen. Dostum's army, and of only one Central Asian country, Uzbekistan.

U.S. officers are already operating in Dostum's headquarters.

Moscow is not interested in the success of the Uzbek-dominated Dostum group. That is why a takeover of Mazar-e-Sharif will not occur soon. Russia will support the Tajik group only.

Moscow and Beijing are frightened that Kazakhstan could follow the Uzbekistan pattern.

President Nazarbayev would be glad to see some U.S. troops in the southwest part of the country, which borders Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. That would spoil the entire game plan of Moscow and Beijing in Central Asia.

Zhirinovsky: America at War With Russia

In an interview published in Nezavisimaya Gazeta on Oct. 25, Col.-Gen. Vladimir Popov, the commander of the Russian Defense Ministry operational group in Tajikistan, said that the forces under his command – including the recently reinforced 201st Motorized Rifle Division – have no plans to help the U.S. in the anti-terrorist operation in Afghanistan.

Simultaneously, Duma Deputy Speaker and Liberal Democratic Party of Russia leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky said that the U.S. anti-terrorist campaign in Afghanistan is a continuation of America's "war against Russia."

He said Moscow should only support the U.S. operation if Washington agrees "not to interfere in the affairs of states that are in the zone of Russian interests – the countries of the former Soviet Union, India, Iran, and Iraq."

It should be stressed here that for the last few years Zhirinovsky has been a mouthpiece for the Kremlin's wishes. He is now a sounding board for Putin's thinking.

Similar reports were issued on Oct. 25 by Russian academician Alexeyev in Obshchaya Gazeta and by influential Director of the Institute of the USA and Canadian academician Sergei Rogov.

By late October, hostility between Uzbekistan on the one hand and Tajikistan and Moscow on the other hand had intensified. This dramatically influenced military developments in northern Afghanistan.

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is a consultant to the American Foreign Policy Council. He is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics."

Dr. Thomas J. Torda has been a Chinese linguist specializing in science and technology with FBIS, and a Chinese/Russian defense technology consultant with the Office of Naval Intelligence.

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