Dr. Aleksandr Nemets and Dr. Thomas Torda
Wednesday, Oct. 17, 2001

The world's focus has been on Osama bin Laden and his network -- but the connections to Russia and China exist and need more investigation.

A Chinese military handbook advised the use of civilian airline jets as "flying bombs" -- and evidence has surfaced about Russian "mafia" ties to bin Laden.

The best brains in the world have done their best to try to solve the puzzle of who carried out these strikes and who organized them.

The situation has gradually become clearer, though much is still hidden in darkness.

It would be senseless to claim that only one person (Osama bin Laden) and one organization (al-Qaida) are responsible for the Sept. 11 attacks.

It would be more accurate to say that the entire world terrorist community, with tens of thousands of active fighters and scores of ringleaders, is behind the strikes.

Can one deny the possible participation of Palestinian terrorists in these strikes?

Or underground fundamentalists from Algeria and Egypt?

Or terrorist groups originating in the secret services of Iran and Iraq?

Some experts even claim that bin Laden is a "stooge," or scapegoat, who deliberately elicits retaliatory strikes on himself, thus providing safety -- and opportunities for preparing new strikes on the U.S. and Western Europe -- for other terrorist groups and ringleaders.

Eliminating the entire world terrorist community would be the proper solution to this puzzle.

The current U.S.-led military campaign in Afghanistan can solve -- in the best case -- perhaps 10 percent of this problem.

This campaign, however, could have important benefits; in particular, Uzbekistan will enter the West's sphere of influence and Sino-Russian control over Central Asia will seriously diminish.

Still, two main problems remain: the extermination of the world terrorist community and the destruction of its rear-support facilities, which provide terrorist groups with money, expertise and sophisticated technology.

The second problem could be even more serious than the first one.

The Sept. 11 strikes were truly sophisticated.

They differ greatly from the terrorists' usual handwriting, which we have observed for many years all over the world and can observe on a daily basis now in Israeli-held Palestinian lands.

The usual strikes of this kind are comparatively primitive and mostly of limited scale: suicide bombings, aircraft hijackings, hostage-taking, etc.

There is no comparison between such actions and the well-organized, precise, large-scale strikes of Sept. 11.

There is the deep impression that these strikes were prepared at some very sophisticated secret bases deep in the rear of the terrorist community, in an absolutely safe environment inaccessible to any retaliatory strikes, and by experts with very high qualifications.

In particular, these experts had comprehensive knowledge of Pentagon air defense and the entire U.S. air defense system.

In short, these facilities and experts are far beyond the level of the usual bases and operatives of the world terrorist community.

Facts build a bridge from this impression to certain logical conclusions.

U.S. Attacks Based on Chinese Book

According to New York-based Shijie ribao (World Journal, Oct. 5, 2001) and Japan's Evening Fuji (Oct. 4, 2001), Japanese security organs have decided that the Sept. 11 strikes were based, with very high probability, on the ideas presented in the book "Unrestricted Warfare," published in 1999 by China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).

This book, describing "asymmetrical" and other unconventional warfare tactics that can be used by terrorists, was written by two PLA air force senior colonels (i.e., brigadier generals), Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui.

Almost immediately after the Sept. 11 strikes the Japanese Security Bureau acquired this book in Beijing and began analyzing it.

The book considers the United States to be the major potential enemy of China.

Its goal is to find the full range of warfare techniques (financial, psychological, commercial, etc.) capable of providing a country with limited military potential but strong state oversight (i.e., China) with an effective resistance against -- or even victory over -- the strongest world army (i.e., U.S. armed forces).

According to the analysis of the Japanese Security Bureau, the book contains "useful recipes" for those who intend to cause maximum harm to a developed nation.

These recipes include hijacking of civilian aircraft and transforming them into "flying bombs" for attacking the most important population centers and facilities such as nuclear power plants.

After reading the book, Chinese President Jiang Zemin in February 2000 stated that "future digitized forces will be the key in a [coming] war. China cannot lag behind here."

In late September 2001, the two authors of "Unrestricted Warfare" issued a statement: "The September 11 strikes showed how vulnerable the U.S. is, despite its military might, and how many weak points the U.S. defense system contains."

This statement probably further fueled the interest of the Japanese Security Bureau in this book.

Involvement of Russian Mafia

Let us look for other facts -- or the link. On Sept. 28 the Washington Times published the following report (excerpted here):

U.S. intelligence agencies have uncovered information that Russian criminal groups have been supplying Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida terrorist network with components for chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. Bin Laden has worked with Russian mafia groups in obtaining components for weapons of mass destruction, according to officials familiar with the intelligence reports. The contacts between the mafia and bin Laden could be related to drug trafficking and such cooperation would not be surprising.

The Russian Foreign Ministry immediately responded with alarm: "Why should such information be splashed on newspaper pages instead of being discussed through the channels existing between our countries, including confidential ones?"

And "One may get the impression that some in the United States oppose the positive tendency in Russian-American relations that has made itself felt recently."

That reaction is understandable: The Russian Foreign Ministry actively participated in a smoke-screen campaign organized by some Moscow-based pro-Kremlin media immediately after the Sept. 11 strikes.

And the question "Whom to believe: the U.S. intelligence community or the Russian Foreign ministry?" is a rhetorical one. The same goes for the question "Could some expertise used in the Sept. 11 strikes have originated in Russia?"

The more serious question is the following: What is the real reason for the Russian Foreign Ministry to defend the Russian mafia?

First, the mafia is the real boss of Russia, and a defense of the mafia is, in reality, a defense of the Russian ruling system and the Russian establishment.

Second, the close ties of the Russian secret intelligence services and mafia are well-known.

In fact, it is impossible for the mafia to transfer any weapons of mass destruction (WMD) technology or related expertise abroad without the approval -- or even support -- of the secret services.

The Foreign Ministry is possibly trying to protect the most sensitive top secrets of Moscow and the Kremlin.

So, there is one link to China's PLA, and a second link to the Russian mafia and secret services. However, let us look for some additional facts.

Asymmetrical Warfare

In 1998, Russian military experts began using the expression "asymmetrical warfare," i.e., advanced warfare of a special kind providing a "comparatively weak country" with the opportunity to prevail in battle with a "strong enemy" (read the U.S. and its allies).

According to available data, much of this "asymmetrical warfare" can be effectively used -- after proper training -- by terrorist groups also.

Almost instantly, asymmetrical warfare became an object of great interest to the PLA. In particular, interest in asymmetrical war fighting techniques can be readily found in the book "Unrestricted Warfare."

In 1999-2000, along with the forging of the Sino-Russian alliance, China and Russia initiated joint research and development programs for dozens of items related to "21st century warfare," including new-generation missiles, fighters, space warfare, information warfare and asymmetrical warfare.

In these projects, the Chinese side usually provides the money, while the Russian side provides the research facilities and specialists. New military technologies developed on Russian soil are later used both in the PLA and the Russian army.

In May-September 2001, Chinese media, including the official Jiefangjun Bao (PLA Daily) and authoritative magazine Liaowang, published several articles describing recent Russian achievements in "sixth generation warfare" and stressing the PLA's need to master this new "super-advanced warfare of the 21st century."

This sixth-generation warfare includes smart missiles (among them, "smart" modifications to the Topol SS-27 ICBM and X-101 strategic land-attack cruise missile), space warfare (new generation spy satellites and anti-satellite weapons), information warfare (including computer viruses and other smart tools to penetrate an enemy's computer networks) and asymmetrical warfare.

The "rear base facilities" of the world terrorist community are still in the dark, but we already know something about the new direction the investigation into the Sept. 11 attacks should take.

In particular, this investigation should provide answers to the following questions:

(1) How does it happen that Dr. Koryagina, one of the Russian government's top economic advisers, knew so much about the forthcoming strikes as early as July?

(2) What is the role of the Moscow-based "Eurasia" movement, whose goal is to "liberate Europe and Asia from American hegemony"? This movement, having close ties with both the KGB and Islamic fundamentalists, is headed by Gleb Pavlovsky, President Putin's major strategist.

Editor's Note: NewsMax has just released the new audiotape set "CIA Files: Defector Reveals Russia's Secret War Plans." You can hear for yourself exactly what Col. Stanislav Lunev, the highest-ranking officer ever to defect from Russia, told the CIA. For more info, CLICK HERE.

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is a consultant to the American Foreign Policy Council. He is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics."

Dr. Thomas J. Torda has been a Chinese linguist specializing in science and technology with FBIS, and a Chinese/Russian defense technology consultant with the Office of Naval Intelligence.

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
War on Terrorism
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