NewsMax.com
Monday, Jan. 15, 2001

This new Axis, reminiscent of the World War II Axis pact between Germany, Italy and Japan, will be aimed at solidifying ties between two traditional enemies whose growing hostility to the U.S. is sparked by their desire to create a counter-force to what they see as America’s attempts to dominate the world, as well as to stymie U.S. plans to build an anti-missile defense system.

The new pact could be signed in mid-2001 when China’s President Jiang Zemin is due to visit Moscow, according to the Washington Post’s John Pomfret.

Writing in Friday’s Post, Pomfret notes that the treaty will mark the first time China has signed a political accord in decades and reinforces the opinion of experts from the two nations that China and Russia are growing closer together than ever, even surpassing their Sino-Soviet alliance early in the Cold War.

The increasing cooperation between China and Russia has been evident in Moscow’s sale of hi-tech military equipment that is helping China to modernize its armed forces.

Russia is now negotiating a combined arms sales package with China valued at up to $15 billion over the next five years – the largest such deal in Russia's history, according to the authoritative British publication Jane's Intelligence Review.

In July, Russian President Vladimir Putin arranged for the sale of AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control Systems) aircraft equipped with advanced radar sensor and communications systems that allow them to monitor the skies for hundreds of miles in any direction, and direct and control their own aircraft against attackers.

Experts warn that the AWACS deal could give China sufficient command of the air to make it difficult for the U.S. to repeat its 1996 deployment of aircraft carriers off the Taiwan Straits.

Beijing spent over $6 billion from 1991 to 1997 buying Russian weapons and this year reached agreement to pay another $2 billion to buy 40 of Russia's latest SU-30 fighter jets. The agreement was aimed at achieving equality with Taiwan's U.S.-made F-16s and French-made Mirage 2000 fighters. The deal also included technology transfers, which will enable China to produce its own spares and future warplanes.

The SU-30 is Russia's most advanced fighter-bomber, and the latest models incorporate the MM thrust-vectoring, which directs the power of the engine to produce sharp changes of height and direction – a state-of-the-art system to avoid anti-aircraft missiles.

For their part, China has already started production of a total of 200 Russian-designed SU-27 fighters at its defense complex in Shenyang City under an agreement signed in 1996.

Thanks to the experience gained from the SU-27, and the new machine tools, blueprints and skills that will be acquired with the SU-30, China will be close to having its own advanced warplane industry.

Speaking of the reported sale of two more Sovremenny destroyers, one unidentified American military official told Pomfret that the ships, equipped with Sunburn anti-ship missiles, "could potentially hurt our aircraft carrier battle groups."

"The sales are beginning to create concern," he said. "After a while, they start to build up. Of course, our real concern is in the things we can't see, the technical transfers, the help on China's cruise missile program, its rockets and strategic forces."

Given the belligerent tone of China’s statements vis-à-vis the U.S., its feverish race to make its armed forces among the world’s most powerful worries U.S. officials.

As reported in NewsMax.com Nov. 15, the possibility of waging war against the United States is coming to dominate the thinking of China’s leadership, which, time and again, has threatened nuclear war against the United States if it comes to the aid of Taiwan when Beijing finally launches its promised attack on the island.

According to a front-page story in the Washington Post, one of the People's Liberation Army strategists, Liu Jiang, wrote in China Military Science, the military's pre-eminent open-source publication: "War is not far from us now. A new arms race has started to develop."

In his Oct. 27 NewsMax.com column, Col. Stanislav Lunev wrote about China’s plans for war with the United States: "It’s known that Red China is preparing for a future war with the U.S., considered by Beijing as its "main potential adversary," and it’s becoming clearer to many experts that this is the reason behind China’s increased military development."

"Currently Beijing is shaping its military into a leaner, more technologically advanced armed force, which will soon have strategic capabilities. This is the long-term Chinese policy, confirmed recently by Chinese President Jiang Zemin when he called for more realistic ultra-high-tech training for his country’s military machine.

"Red China currently is engaged in an extremely aggressive intelligence war against the U.S. and America’s friends and allies, as well as in the massive military buildup, which includes weapons of mass destruction and conventional arms. This buildup is based not on any threat to China but instead on the ambitions of the Communist rulers in Beijing."

Experts see the coming treaty as a challenge to the Bush administration.

Jonathan Pollack, chairman of the strategic research department at the Naval War College, told the Post that the treaty reflects Moscow's and Beijing's concerns about the incoming Bush administration.

"These negotiations are being publicized on the very eve of the Bush presidency. It may not be a formal alliance, but it's trying to give meaning and momentum to the concept of a strategic partnership, which seems overly nebulous to many," he said.

Pollack added that one incentive for closer Sino-Russia ties was their united opposition to U.S. policies.

"Both leaderships are very uneasy about the new administration's plans to accelerate national missile defense, though it's unclear that either has a strategy for restraining this process. But a more committed bilateral relationship would make it more difficult for either to do a side deal with Washington," he said.

"The United States, through incompetence and ham-handed policymaking, has effectively driven China and Russia together," said James Mulvenon, a security expert at the Rand Corp.

"NMD [national missile defense] is a perfect example," he told the Post. "By not having a coordinated policy vis-à-vis the Europeans and the Russians, we let the Chinese play them off against us. There is an enormous resonance in both countries for blaming problems on American hegemony, and we have done nothing to drive a wedge between them."

A formidable Sino-Russian partnership has not been a consideration since the Cold War era, but if Jiang and Putin continue building a mutual trust and friendship between their two countries, President Bush may find himself having to face an alliance that is more than capable of challenging America’s dominance and influence on the world.

Read more on this subject in these two books:
The China Threat by Bill Gertz
Through the Eyes of the Enemy by Col. Stanislav Lunev

or in related Hot Topics:
Russia
China-Taiwan