Tags: obama | romney | election | poll

Poll: Obama, Romney in a Statistical Tie

Monday, 29 Oct 2012 12:12 PM

By Peter Moses

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National polling numbers show President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney in a statistical tie, according to a recent Politico/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll.

The poll, conducted last Monday through Thursday, gives Obama a 49-48 lead over his Republican challenger Mitt Romney, a statistical tie according to the 3.1 percent margin of error.

Obama also leads Romney by 11 points among women.

“The women have come back, and they look pretty locked in,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who was part of the bipartisan poll. “The key is to win the women by as much as you’re losing the men by.”

Romney had been gaining in his polling numbers among women, to within six points, according to some polls, but Obama has since stretched his lead 11 points, 54 to 43 percent. Some blame Romney’s “binders full of women” comment in the second debate, while Obama and his supporters have been pounding Romney as someone against women’s rights with regard to abortion and contraception in speeches and advertising.

Men continue to support Romney by 12 points, 55 to 43 percent.

Where Romney has a decided advantage is in the intensity of his support — the poll gives Romney a large edge with those “extremely likely” to vote. Sixty percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 73 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 9 points, 53 to 44 percent.

Another area for potential growth for the challenger is the undecided vote. The tracking numbers for those pivotal Americans favor Romney by a 50-40 percent margin and most of them have been swayed to Romney because of the dismal economic numbers throughout Obama’s term in office.

The poll, conducted by the Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners, surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters from Oct. 22 to Oct. 25 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.




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