Forecast Using State Economic Data Points to Romney Victory

Thursday, 23 Aug 2012 03:21 PM

By Newsmax Wires

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A University of Colorado forecasting model that has accurately predicted each presidential election since 1980 now indicates that Republican Mitt Romney will emerge triumphant.

Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry use state economic data, such as unemployment rates, to make their conclusions, according to the Boulder (Colorado) Camera.

Like many others, the professors see the economy as paramount in this election. "If the economy were just average, we would be forecasting Obama to win," Bickers told the Camera. "But the economy is below average, and he is struggling."

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Bickers sees parallels with 1980, when the economy suffered from stagflation and Republican Ronald Reagan defeated Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter.

The professors’ model shows that Romney will receive more than 300 electoral votes, easily surpassing the 270 needed to capture the White House. Bickers and Berry predict Romney will beat Obama 52.9 percent to 47.1 percent in the popular vote, assuming there’s no third-party candidate.

Obama may well lose the important swing states of Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, Bickers said.

To be sure, the professors are well aware of their forecast’s limits. "As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways . . . that the model is unable to correctly predict," Berry said in a news release.

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