Forecast Using State Economic Data Points to Romney Victory

Thursday, 23 Aug 2012 03:21 PM

By Newsmax Wires

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
|  A   A  
  Copy Shortlink
A University of Colorado forecasting model that has accurately predicted each presidential election since 1980 now indicates that Republican Mitt Romney will emerge triumphant.

Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry use state economic data, such as unemployment rates, to make their conclusions, according to the Boulder (Colorado) Camera.

Like many others, the professors see the economy as paramount in this election. "If the economy were just average, we would be forecasting Obama to win," Bickers told the Camera. "But the economy is below average, and he is struggling."

Urgent: Does Paul Ryan Really Help Defeat Obama? Vote in Exclusive Poll

Bickers sees parallels with 1980, when the economy suffered from stagflation and Republican Ronald Reagan defeated Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter.

The professors’ model shows that Romney will receive more than 300 electoral votes, easily surpassing the 270 needed to capture the White House. Bickers and Berry predict Romney will beat Obama 52.9 percent to 47.1 percent in the popular vote, assuming there’s no third-party candidate.

Obama may well lose the important swing states of Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, Bickers said.

To be sure, the professors are well aware of their forecast’s limits. "As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways . . . that the model is unable to correctly predict," Berry said in a news release.

© 2014 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
  Copy Shortlink
Around the Web
Join the Newsmax Community
>> Register to share your comments with the community.
>> Login if you are already a member.
blog comments powered by Disqus
 
Email:
Retype Email:
Country
Zip Code:
 
Hot Topics
Follow Newsmax
Like us
on Facebook
Follow us
on Twitter
Add us
on Google Plus
Around the Web
You May Also Like

Brent Bozell: Media Refuses to Cover Easter as Religious Holiday

Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 21:45 PM

Media outlets are largely ignoring the religious side of holidays such as Easter and Christmas, says Media Research Cent . . .

High-Tech Surveillance System Blankets Boston For Marathon

Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 20:18 PM

A high-tech surveillance system consisting of cameras connected to a network that uses a form of artificial intelligence . . .

Researcher: Total Parental Involvement Can Hinder Kids' Education

Thursday, 17 Apr 2014 20:07 PM

Most parents believe the more they are involved in their children's education, the better they will do in school. Keith  . . .

Newsmax, Moneynews, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, NewsmaxWorld, NewsmaxHealth, are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

 
NEWSMAX.COM
America's News Page
©  Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved