Tags: Intrade | Obama | bets | romney

Odds-Maker Intrade: Obama Will Be Re-elected

Monday, 22 Oct 2012 12:05 PM

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Barack Obama will be re-elected as president of the United States on Nov. 6, according to the latest forecast on Intrade, an online-prediction platform.

Intrade is giving Obama a 61.0 percent chance of reelection versus 39 percent for his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, according to the latest forecasts.

The Dublin-based prediction market site allows users to bet money on whom they expect to win a variety of U.S. political races, including the presidential race.

Editor's Note: Obama Donor Banned This Video But You Can Watch it Here

As of midday Eastern time Monday, Intrade reported that "shares" predicting Obama will win were trading at $6.06 and more than two million shares had traded hands. "Shares"  predicting Romney would win traded at about $3.95, with 1.9 million trading hands.

The higher the value of shares, in this case for an Obama victory, the more people are betting he will win, and the probability of a victory is seen to be higher. All bets on Intrade are between $0.00 and $10.

Intrade's bettors have a long history of picking the winners in U.S. political races, ForexTV.com reported. In the 2004 presidential race, the Intrade odds accurately predicted the electoral votes in every single state, while in 2006 the odds predicted every single winner in the U.S. senatorial races, according to PollingReport, ForexTV.com reported.

Meanwhile, other polling outfits are making similar calls.

Blogger Nate Silver is giving Obama a 67.9 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, according to Silver's New York Times blog FiveThirtyEight.

Odds are subject to change on a daily basis.

Gallup's seven-day tracking polls, meanwhile, have found that Romney is up by seven points with likely voters, thought the former Massachusetts governor is up by one point with registered voters, according to Business Insider.

The Gallup numbers show that Obama could conceivably win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote. The latest Intrade data showed betters forecasting Obama to take 259 electoral votes compared to Romney's 248.

"That's certainly what it looks like," Frank Newport, editor in chief of Gallup, told Business Insider.

The numbers could swing either way, since they stem from a seven-day poll.

"I think we're still seeing leftover positive support for Romney, and I don't think we're seeing impact yet from the second debate," Newport said, which would bode well for Obama.

Plus the poll questions likely voters, who would be subject to changes in heart based on events.

Romney, for example, surged after he won the first debate while Obama rose in wake of his stronger showing at the second debate.

"The likely voters model takes into account changes in the response to questions about how closely they're following and how enthusiastic they are," Newport said.

"It's not just capturing underlying movement — it's representing changes in enthusiasm."

Editor's Note: Obama Donor Banned This Video But You Can Watch it Here



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