MarketWatch’s Hulbert: Election Will Have Little Impact on Stock Market, Economy

Tuesday, 06 Nov 2012 11:35 AM

By Dan Weil

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While the presidential candidates have profoundly different views of where to take the country, the election will likely mean little for the short-term direction of the stock market and economy, says MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert.

As for stocks, Hulbert looked back at the 35 bull markets since 1900, and not one of them began in a presidential election month. Only one ended in one — Nov. 1916, as World War I was intensifying.

For the economy, only one of the 33 recessions since the mid-1800s began in a presidential election month — November 1948.

Editor's Note: Economist Unapologetically Calls Out Bernanke, Obama for Mishandling Economy. See What They Did

“On both counts, there is little, if any, historical support for the notion that the outcome of this month’s presidential election will bring about a change in the economy or the market’s major trend,” Hulbert says.

That actually makes sense, “because hype notwithstanding, both of the major political parties end up managing the economy in profoundly similar fashions,” he writes.

For example, President Barack Obama’s economic team is little different in mindset from that of his predecessor George W. Bush.

Many experts say the economy is primed for recovery regardless of who is elected president.

“The die is cast for a much stronger recovery,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, tells Bloomberg. He predicts growth of 2 percent for 2012 and 2013 before a surge to about 4 percent for the following two years.

Editor's Note: Economist Unapologetically Calls Out Bernanke, Obama for Mishandling Economy. See What They Did

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