An examination of early voting numbers by the Washington Post shows that Democratic margins are down from 2008 when President Barack Obama rolled up large numbers but up from 2010 when Democrats were routed in the mid-term elections.
The Post concludes the numbers mean that a "very close race in store."
"This makes sense," the Post wrote. "After all, both 2008 and 2010 were wave election years, in which Democrats and Republicans, respectively, made massive gains. So the 2012 early vote was almost destined to fall somewhere in the middle.
"And in almost every case, the 2012 early vote is either smack-dab in the middle of the 2008 and 2010 numbers or very close."
For example, the Post noted that in Iowa Democrats were ahead in early voting in 2008 by 18 points and just six in 2010. This year they lead by 10.
"In basically every state, Democrats' early vote edge is between four and eight points less than it was in 2008. Given that Obama won the popular vote in 2008 by about seven points that would suggest a margin-of-error race."
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