Roll Call's Rothenberg: GOP Capture of Senate Is Far From Assured

Wednesday, 16 Jul 2014 08:19 PM

By Cathy Burke

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
|  A   A  
  Copy Shortlink
Republican gains in the Senate seem certain this November, polls show, but a GOP gain of six seats to take control of the upper chamber isn't in the bag just yet, political observer Stuart Rothenberg says.

"[S]ome of the pieces of the puzzle have moved around dramatically over the past few months," the Roll Call columnist writes. 

Handicapping the upcoming races, Rothenberg maintains three Democratic-held Senate seats seem "headed to the GOP" – Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.

But "from that point on," he writes, "things get a bit dicier for Republicans."

Rothenberg's sober view contrasts with a new poll from The Washington Post's Election Lab model that gives Republicans an 86 percent chance of winning a Senate majority. 

Rothenberg argues vulnerable Democratic seats in Arkansas and Louisiana are anything but locks.

The contest between incumbent Arkansas Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor and GOP challenger, Rep. Tom Cotton, is "a statistical dead heat… with Cotton holding a small advantage," he writes.

And in Louisiana, he writes Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu is likely headed for a runoff in December against her closest challenge, Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy – but the eventual winner will depend "on what happened in other Senate contests in November, and whether [Landrieus's] seat would decide control of the chamber in 2015."

A big "surprise," he writes, is taking shape in Iowa, where Joni Ernst could benefit from Democrat Rep. Bruce Braley's early "missteps."

A June poll had her slightly ahead.

Rothenberg writes there's also reason for GOP optimism in Alaska, North Carolina and Colorado.

In Alaska, he writes, "Republican prospects depend in part on the results of the Aug. 19 GOP primary," while North Carolina's Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan is barely holding her own against GOP challenger Thom Tillis. 

In Colorado, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall is getting a run for his money from a well-liked and well-funded Republican Rep. Cory Gardner, Rothenberg writes. 

"Far longer shots" for the GOP lie in Michigan, New Hampshire and Virginia, while Republicans are nervously watching contests in Georgia and Kentucky, he writes.

"[F]undamentals make it very uphill for Michelle Nunn, so unless she is running strongly in early October, there is no reason to think that Georgia is a particularly good opportunity for Democrats," Rothenberg writes.

As for Kentucky's incumbent Mitch McConnell, Rothenberg thinks the minority leader should get a boost from the "unpopularity" of President Barack Obama and "the midterm dynamic."

Related Stories:

© 2014 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
  Copy Shortlink
Around the Web
Join the Newsmax Community
Please review Community Guidelines before posting a comment.
>> Register to share your comments with the community.
>> Login if you are already a member.
blog comments powered by Disqus
 
Email:
Country
Zip Code:
Privacy: We never share your email.
 
Hot Topics
Follow Newsmax
Like us
on Facebook
Follow us
on Twitter
Add us
on Google Plus
Around the Web
Top Stories
You May Also Like

No Dem Senate Candidate on Kansas Overseas Ballots

Friday, 19 Sep 2014 22:13 PM

There's no Democratic Senate candidate listed on some 500 Kansas ballots mailed to overseas voters this weekend – a setb . . .

RNC's Priebus Slams Wis. Governor Candidate for Jobs Plan Fiasco

Friday, 19 Sep 2014 19:22 PM

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus slammed Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mary Burke on . . .

DNC Raises $7M in August, Has $11M Banked

Friday, 19 Sep 2014 18:42 PM

The Democratic National Committee raised $7 million last month and has $11 million banked.The DNC on Friday filed its Au . . .

Most Commented

Newsmax, Moneynews, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, NewsmaxWorld, NewsmaxHealth, are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

 
NEWSMAX.COM
America's News Page
©  Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved