The Miami Herald
did some polling math based on early vote totals in Florida Tuesday and came up with an estimate that GOP gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott is leading by 100,000 votes over Democrat Alex Sink. The Herald arrived at that figure by dividing the total number of votes by estimates of Republicans, Democrats and registered independents and then collating them with the results of the last three major polls.
“We averaged the last three poll results and applied the percentages to each candidate. So Sink got about 82, 12 and 48 percent of the Democrat, Republican and independent votes, respectively. Scott got 10, 80 and 38 percent of the Democrat, Republican and independent votes, respectively. Apply those to the ballots cast and Scott is up 112,000, or 5 percentage points.
“Note: the formula about doesn't apportion all the ballots cast to Sink and Scott because, together, the polls show they don't get 100 percent of the vote due to undecided voters and those who opt for a third-party candidate. That leaves about 200,000 more ballots cast that could be up for grabs.
“Also, early/absentee votes will likely account for about 42 percent of the total votes cast this election. So there's lots of voting to be done today. Still, the pressure's on Sink to scrap on and turn out her vote. Scott has to hang on as he turns out his.
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