Poll: Obama Leads in Florida, Trails in North Carolina

Monday, 20 Aug 2012 11:09 AM

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President Barack Obama has taken a 6-point lead in the crucial swing state of Florida while GOP challenger Mitt Romney has a 2-point edge in North Carolina, a state Obama won in 2008, two new JZ Analytics Polls show.

The Florida online poll of 600 likely voters, taken Aug. 15-17, shows Obama ahead 47 to 41 percent. The president’s position is helped by a 51 percent to 39 percent lead among women and a strong showing with younger voters and Hispanics. Romney does better with those over 65 and with whites. When Libertarian Party and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson is added to the poll, Obama's lead grows to 46 percent to 39 percent.

In North Carolina, Romney leads 45 to 43 percent, with a big lead among men, whites, and older voters.

"If Obama holds his lead in Florida, then Romney has serious problems,” JZ pollster John Zogby said. “Thus far, in the Real Clear Politics Electoral College count, Obama has sufficient leads to count 239 electoral votes and Romney has 191; 270 are needed to win. An Obama win in Florida would put him within three votes of a win, thus Romney would have to run the table.

“Not a lock yet at all, but Obama's leads in South Florida and among Hispanics puts him in good shape. Romney's choice of Paul Ryan as a running mate is not hurting him among older voters, but watch the attacks on Ryan's [now Romney's] budget and Medicare cuts get vicious. Romney's lead in North Carolina takes a state away from Obama and could be a bellwether for Virginia, which Obama also won in 2008. With Gary Johnson in the race, Obama gets 43 percent to Romney's 42 percent. Johnson's 3 percent looms pretty large. Something to watch."

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