President Barack Obama leads presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney 45 percent to 40 percent among voters in Romney’s native state of Michigan, according to a new poll from Glengariff Group. The margin isn’t far outside of the poll’s four percentage point margin of error.
Women provide Obama with his advantage as he is winning the female vote 47 percent to 35 percent, while barely leading Romney among men — 44 to 43 percent. "Barack Obama, if he wins, will win it on the women's vote," Glengariff CEO Richard Czuba told The Detroit News
. "I think for the Romney campaign that is the issue now, making headway with the gender gap."
To be sure, given that Obama is an incumbent and yet still stands far from 50 percent in a Democratic-leaning state, his lead is quite tenuous. "This is not a slam dunk by any means," Czuba said. "It's a race."
Republicans are encouraged. "This is great news," Saul Anuzis, former chairman of the state Republican Party and a member of the Republican National Committee, told The News. The poll "shows how much trouble Obama is in. If Barack Obama loses Michigan, he loses the White House."
Another positive sign for Romney is that he leads among independents — 37 to 33 percent. The candidates are tied among senior voters. Obama leads 52 to 36 percent among voters aged 18 to 29 and 52 to 30 percent among those aged 50 to 64. Romney leads among voter in their 30s — 42 to 38 percent — and in their 40s — 48 to 40 percent.
White voters favor Romney, 47 to 38 percent, and black voters favor Obama, 94 percent to zero, although fewer than 80 black voters were surveyed.
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