Tags: james | carville | gop | exile

Carville Says 40 Years of GOP in Exile; Democrats Want Sarah Palin in 2012

Monday, 11 May 2009 01:03 PM

By David A. Patten

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James Carville, one of the Democratic Party’s most savvy strategists, is predicting that the GOP is facing a tsunami of demographic change that will make it the minority party for the next 40 years.

While Carville’s new book, “40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation,” is bringing glee to Democrats, it is fast becoming a must read for Republicans worried about their party. They fear that Carville may be right.

In an exclusive interview with Newsmax.TV, Carville reveals that he’s gotten surprising interest from GOP friends.

"I ran my thesis by any number of Republican consultants and they all agree with it," he said.

[Editor's Note: Get James Carville’s new book, “40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation,” Go here now.]

Carville, a key architect of Bill Clinton's rise to the White House, says a 40-year era of Republican political dominance over Washington is coming to an abrupt end with Obama in the White House and fellow Democrats controlling Congress.

The pendulum now has swung and it's the Democrats' turn, he says.

See Video: James Carville explains what he thinks the future holds for the GOP and the Democrats - Click Here Now

Carville is careful to point out that he expects Republicans to occasionally capture the White House during the coming decades of Democratic rule. He notes that during the years of GOP dominance the Democrats managed to capture the White House for 12 of the preceding 40 years.

But the occasional GOP presidential victories ahead won't change the reality that Democratic strength among young voters and minorities will give it a lock grip over DC policymaking, he predicts.

Carville, a CNN analyst who is married to conservative commentator and strategist Mary Matalin, also says it's only a matter of time before the political balance of power evens out.

"One thing I know about Republicans is they're very sort of good at campaigning, and they're going to adjust," Carville tells Newsmax. "The question is, how do they adjust?"

Carville's book is spiced up by his usual Cajun blend of colorful anecdotes, keen analysis, and sharp-tongued partisan barbs.

His careworn claims that Republicans stole the 2000 elections and that the GOP suffers from "systemic" corruption are sure to send conservative readers reaching for their blood-pressure medication.

But Carville says Republicans should remain open to a little advice from the other side of the political aisle.

"This is not the sort of rah-rah stuff that sometimes Republicans like where everything is sort of self-confirming," he concedes. "But if you have a problem it's better to identify the problem and try to solve it than to deny your problem. And remember, we Democrats went through this in 1981, 1995, and 2005," he says.

Carville contends the 2008 election that put President Obama in the White House reflects tectonic changes in America's underlying landscape. Republicans have put too much emphasis on culture-war issues and have alienated "an entire generation of voters," the pundit says.

Ironically, Carville's prescribed cure for what ails the GOP agrees with many of its most conservative voices: The party's reputation for fiscal responsibility must be restored.

"The main thing they need to do before anything else is they need somehow to take credibility back on spending issues," Carville tells Newsmax. "They've lost that. When that went, a lot went, because that was a kind of thing that united many Republicans across the other social-economic issues."

He concedes Republicans may get a boost from the perception that Democrats are responsible for whatever goes awry, given their political dominance.

"In the 2012 elections, [Democrats] are going to be accountable for anything goes wrong. Of course there's always the possibility some things could go right, too. And if that were to happen, they'd probably take some credit for that."

He adds, "I've said earlier [Sen. Arlen] Specter would just go from being the most unreliable Republican to the most unreliable Democrat. I'm not sure this will turn out all that well, but we'll have to wait and see."

Other highlights from Carville's exclusive Newsmax interview:

  • Sarah Palin is "probably" the candidate that Democrats would most prefer to run against in 2012. "I think she's compelling. I don't have much respect for her curiosity, or I don't have much respect for the sort of thought she's given the issues facing the world, or her type of experience," Carville says.

  • Asked if Obama has delivered on his promises for an era of post-partisan politics, Carville said, "Probably not," adding: "I mean I think he tried. And the Republicans made a decision they were not going to do that. … I think the country, with all of the data I've seen, thinks the Republicans have been more partisan than he has. And I'm not sure it's helped the Republicans all that much. But in terms of garnering a lot of Republican support, the record is kind of clear that he hasn't so far. That could change. I'm not sure that he hasn't scored political points by trying. But we'll have to wait and see."

  • Reports that he has a conference call each morning with Democratic strategist Paul Begala, ABC This Week host George Stephanopoulos, and White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel are inaccurate, he says. He says the group has never been on a conference call per se, but acknowledges that talking with them is "kind of part of my daily routine." He says the group became friends while working together on intense political campaigns in the early 90s, adding "We do talk all the time." Asked if the conversation includes discussions with chief of staff Emanuel on talking points, or how to position certain topics in the media, Carville replies, "Well, why not? I'm an identified Democratic person on CNN. A lot of times I'll find out, you know, try to work something, see what's going on -- sure…. If something builds up in the Congress, I'll call George and we'll talk, and say, 'What's going on with this?' You know what I mean: 'What happened here?' I would think that would like be more part of my job. I think our viewers would just as soon have an identified, Democrat partisan, which I make no sort of bones about."

  • Carville also ventured a guess that Republicans would fare reasonably well in the 2010 midterm elections. "I think that Republicans will pick up some House seats. I don't think there's any doubt about that," he says. "And the Senate is I think a little more promising for the Democrats. But normally what happens is … the Senate and the House pretty much go in tandem. Right now this is subject to change. It's very, very early in the process. But it looks like the Republicans would be on course to get some gains."

    See Video: James Carville explains what he thinks the future holds for the GOP and the Democrats - Click Here Now

    [Editor's Note: Get James Carville’s new book, “40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation,” Go here now.]

    © 2014 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

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