Gallup Reviews Poll Methods After Failure to Predict Obama’s Win

Tuesday, 04 Jun 2013 12:42 PM

 

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
|  A   A  
  Copy Shortlink

Gallup, whose final 2012 election poll showed Republican challenger Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama, said today that its likely-voters screen and too few interviews on the East and West coasts contributed to its failure to forecast the final vote accurately.

The Gallup poll commissioned a study of its methods after its last pre-election survey gave Romney a 1-point lead over Obama, who won re-election by almost 4 percentage points.

“That’s not where we wanted to be,” Frank Newport, Gallup editor-in-chief, told reporters at a briefing today in Washington.

The firm said it was reviewing its models, had already changed some of the methods it follows in conducting surveys, and would make other adjustments as needed.

In a report prepared with the University of Michigan, Gallup said the way it determined likely voters, such as screening for those who have voted in previous elections and their interest in this one, tilted its sample toward Romney.

“What we’re doing is evaluating the whole process of estimating likely voters,” Newport said.

The firm said its samples skewed more to Midwestern and Southern voters rather than those on the East and West coasts, where Obama was strongest.

It discovered that its telephone samples appeared to be tilted toward Republicans and raised questions about the way it weighted for cell phone-only respondents.

Its questioning to determine race and ethnicity of respondents also produced flawed information, Gallup said.


© Copyright 2014 Bloomberg News. All rights reserved.

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
  Copy Shortlink
Around the Web
Join the Newsmax Community
Please review Community Guidelines before posting a comment.
>> Register to share your comments with the community.
>> Login if you are already a member.
blog comments powered by Disqus
 
Email:
Retype Email:
Country
Zip Code:
 
Hot Topics
Follow Newsmax
Like us
on Facebook
Follow us
on Twitter
Add us
on Google Plus
Around the Web
You May Also Like

Leaked Campaign Memo Exposes Michelle Nunn's Weaknesses

Monday, 28 Jul 2014 23:04 PM

Democrat Michelle Nunn's run for the Georgia Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Saxby Chambliss suffered a . . .

WaPo's Cillizza: Obama's Incompetence Will Hurt Midterm Dems

Monday, 28 Jul 2014 21:39 PM

President Barack Obama is facing a problem with public confidence in his abilities, but Democrats seeking midterm re-ele . . .

Leahy to Propose Strong Curbs on NSA Phone Data Collection

Monday, 28 Jul 2014 19:21 PM

A new Senate proposal to curb the government's bulk collection of Americans' telephone records and increase transparency . . .

Most Commented

Newsmax, Moneynews, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, NewsmaxWorld, NewsmaxHealth, are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

 
NEWSMAX.COM
America's News Page
©  Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved