Tags: cantor | polls | were | wrong

Most Polls Got Cantor So Wrong

Image: Most Polls Got Cantor So Wrong

Wednesday, 11 Jun 2014 06:58 AM

By Elliot Jager

The media is likely to spend days trying to explain Republican Majority Leader Eric Cantor's defeat at the hands of tea party challenger, David Brat in Virginia's 7th Congressional District.

One explanation as to why the polls were so wrong is that public opinion surveys "can be blurry snapshots," according to Hoover Institution political expert Bill Whalen.

Polls had Cantor leading Brat 52 percent to 39 percent. What they may have failed to take into account was the combination of a low turnout and a surge of committed voters. Just one-twelfth the district's population voted – roughly 64,000 ballots were cast. "A small turnout translates to a more passionate electorate" with tea party members upset about immigration reform and other hot button issues more motivated to vote than other Republicans, writes Whalen.

In fact, Cantor appears to have lost Henrico County his home base, according to Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.

Secondly, polls put out by Cantor's own camp proved misleading, according to FiveThirtyEight. "You shouldn't trust the internal polls put out by candidates. Just a few weeks ago, Cantor released a survey showing himself up 34 percentage points."

That internal poll was conducted by McLaughlin & Associates which has called "many races wrong in the past two years," according to FiveThirtyEight. McLaughlin said its margin of error for the late May poll was 4.9 percentage points, Politico noted.

Cantor held a comparatively narrower 13-point edge in a Vox Populi survey which gave him the 52-39 lead with 9 percent undecided, according to Politico. The Daily Caller which commissioned the poll reported  that just over a week before primary day, Cantor was "struggling" to win the primary.

Public Policy tracking of Cantor's popularity could also have offered a clue. It showed him with a 40 percent unfavorable rating against 26 percent who were favorable.

Business Insider reported that maybe Cantor did know things were looking down given how much he outspent Brat on the race. The release of favorable internal polling showing a wide lead may have been an effort at political spin.

Ultimately, Brat beat Cantor by 11 points, 55.5 percent to 44.5 percent, Politico reported.

Related Stories

AP Poll: Americans Don't Trust Each Other

Poll Survey: Rasmussen, Pew Most Accurate in 2008

© 2015 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

Around the Web
Join the Newsmax Community
Please review Community Guidelines before posting a comment.
>> Register to share your comments with the community.
>> Login if you are already a member.
blog comments powered by Disqus
Zip Code:
Privacy: We never share your email.
Hot Topics
Follow Newsmax
Like us
on Facebook
Follow us
on Twitter
Add us
on Google Plus
Around the Web
Top Stories
You May Also Like

Ex-Ambassador: Netanyahu Invitation 'Totally Unacceptable'

Thursday, 29 Jan 2015 08:53 AM

Daniel Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, has condemned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's planned ad . . .

Democrats, Angry at Netanyahu Invite, May Delay Sanctions Vote

Thursday, 29 Jan 2015 08:02 AM

The Republican invitation for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress over the threat of Iran may  . . .

Techies Lining Up to Join Hillary's 2016 Campaign

Thursday, 29 Jan 2015 07:14 AM

There are hundreds of Democratic techies hoping for the chance to come on board Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential camp . . .

Most Commented

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

America's News Page
©  Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved