Report: GOP a 'Near-Lock' to Retake Senate

Tuesday, 15 Jul 2014 06:46 PM

By Cathy Burke

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Republicans are a statistical "near-lock" to retake the Senate, The Washington Post reports.

The newspaper reports there's an 86 percent change the GOP will be back in the majority after the November election, up from 82 percent earlier in the year, citing a statistical model built by three political scientists for the newspaper.

The Election Lab model results are higher than Republican estimates and those of  non-partisan political handicappers,The Post noted.

"Our model suggests that the GOP has a very good chance of winning the Republican-leaning states: Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Louisiana," writes Post blogger John Sides, a political science professor at George Washington University.

"That gives them five seats. They also have a better than 50-50 chance of winning Iowa, where Joni Ernst's recent surge has made the race neck-and-neck — a trend that is consistent with what our model suggested about the Iowa race back in May. Meanwhile, Democrats have a good chance of winning Colorado, Michigan, and North Carolina."

Specifically, the Election Lab model showed the Democrat-held seat in Alaska has a 65 percent chance of a GOP win; the Democrat-held Arkansas seat has an 85 percent chance of going Republican; the Republican Georgia Senate seat has a 99 percent chance of a GOP win; the Democrat-held Iowa seat has a 78 percent chance of going to the GOP; the GOP Kentucky seat has a 99 percent chance of a Republican win; and the Democrat-held Louisiana seat has a 93 percent shot at a GOP win.

"Add those results to near-certain Republican pickups in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, and Republicans would start the 114th Congress with 52 seats" in the Senate, the newspaper says.

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