Rasmussen Generic Ballot: GOP Has 9-Point Lead

Tuesday, 19 Oct 2010 04:12 PM

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With Election Day just around the corner, Republican congressional candidates have nearly a double-digit lead over Democrats, not to mention a gaping lead in another key indicator, according to the new Rasmussen Reports tally on the pollster’s Generic Congressional Ballot. That measure indicates that 48 percent would vote for the Republican candidate in their district, while 39 percent would log a vote for the Democrat.

Rasmussen, Election Day, Republicans, GenericHowever, Rasmussen’s analysis pinpointed out an even more worrisome stat for Dems: Republicans hold a 55-36 percent lead among voters who are following the midterm elections most closely.

Although the margin has varied somewhat from week to week, Republicans have led the generic ballot consistently for more than a year, Rasmussen says, noting that the lead previously had run as high as 12 points but also as low as 3.

When Barack Obama became president, Democrats had a 7-point generic ballot lead.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold a 17-point lead.

The Republican advantage comes from a number of factors. One is the fact that midterm elections typically feature an older electorate with a smaller share of minority voters. Additionally, in 2010, there is clearly an enthusiasm gap favoring the GOP.

The generic results were much different during the last two election cycles when Democrats regularly had large leads. The two parties were very close through the spring of 2009, but Republicans pulled ahead for good in June, around the time Democrats began their campaign for healthcare reform.

Rasmussen's Senate Balance of Power rankings shows Democrats with a 48-46 advantage, while six races remain tossups (California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, West Virginia).

Its Gubernatorial Scorecard projects 27 governorships for the GOP, 13 for the Democrats and 10 tossups (Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont).

Most voters continue to favor repeal of the national healthcare law, but the number of voters who expect the law to increase the deficit has fallen to the lowest point since its passage by Congress in March.

Nearly three-fourths believe it is at least somewhat likely that the new law will cause some companies to drop health insurance coverage for their employees, including 47 percent who say it is very likely.

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