Latest: Ohio Gov Race a Dead Heat

Monday, 01 Nov 2010 08:13 AM


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The race for Ohio governor is a dead heat with Republican John Kasich getting 47 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for Democratic incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Rob Portman has an insurmountable 56 – 37 percent lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, the independent Quinnipiac University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds.

Strickland, who had trailed by double digits earlier in the fall campaign, is leading among Democrats 90 – 6 percent, but Kasich is ahead among Republicans 83 – 10 percent and independent voters 57 – 36 percent in the survey completed Saturday of those who say they are likely to vote or have already cast their ballots.

Critical to the outcome are the 6 percent of likely voters who remain undecided and another 5 percent who have selected a candidate but say they could change their mind.

“The governor’s race is a statistical tie. It could go either way,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Gov. Ted Strickland has come from far back. The question is whether he can get over the hump. He has momentum on his side. John Kasich has the historical tendency of undecided voters to break against well-known incumbents at the very end of a campaign.”

Strickland is viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by the same percentage of likely voters. Kasich has an edge on that measure, with 47 percent of likely voters giving him a thumbs up and 37 percent a thumbs down.

There is a sizable gender gap with men backing Kasich 55 – 41 percent and women supporting Strickland 50 – 41 percent.

In the Senate race, Portman leads Fisher among Republicans 94 – 3 percent and among independent voters 70 – 23 percent, while Fisher carries Democrats 83 – 11 percent. Portman’s sweep is so broad that he carries women 52 – 40 percent and men 61 – 34 percent.

“The Senate race has never been close and looks more like what we often see with a popular incumbent seeking re-election rather than an open seat contest.” said Brown.

From October 25 – 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 848 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

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