Missouri: Blunt Still Ahead of Carnahan

Thursday, 23 Sep 2010 12:55 PM


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Republican Congressman Roy Blunt still leads Democrat Robin Carnahan in Missouri’s race for the U.S. Senate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Blunt picking up 52% support, while Carnahan, Missouri’s secretary of state, gets 44% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

Two weeks ago, Blunt led Carnahan by a 53% to 43% margin when leaners were included in the totals. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. Rasmussen Reports now considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.

The race continues to be rated Leans GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

Results before leaners are added find Blunt with a 50% to 41% edge over Carnahan, showing little change over the past two weeks. From September of 2009 through late August, support for Blunt ranged from 44% to 51% in results excluding leaners. Carnahan’s support ranged from 40% to 46% over the same period.

Blunt and Carnahan are running for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Senator Christopher "Kit" Bond.

While 75% of Blunt’s supporters are certain of their vote this November, 67% of Carnahan’s backers say the same.

Eighty-eight (88%) of Missouri Republicans back Blunt, while 86% of the state’s Democrats give their vote to Carnahan. Blunt leads Carnahan 59% to 33% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

This survey of 750 Likely Voters in Missouri was conducted on September 21, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In Missouri, 64% of voters favor repeal of the new national health care law, which is slightly higher than results found nationwide. That number includes 54% who Strongly Favor repeal. Only 29% oppose repeal of the law, with 23% who Strongly Oppose it.

While 78% of the larger group who Strongly Favor repeal support Blunt, 88% of those who Strongly Oppose repeal back Carnahan.

Blunt is viewed favorably by 53% of voters in Missouri, which includes a 19% Very Favorable rating. Forty-two percent (42%) regard the Republican unfavorably, including 28% who share a Very Unfavorable opinion of him.

Carnahan’s ratings are 45% favorable, 52% unfavorable. Those numbers include 24% Very Favorable and 33% Very Unfavorable.

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