Political Blogs Predict Limited 2014 Gains for GOP

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Monday, 09 Dec 2013 10:45 AM

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Republicans will manage to maintain control of the House in the 2014 elections, but will likely snatch only a handful of seats from Democrats, according to a Washington Post political blog.

The blog's forecast model predicts Republicans will have the advantage, but does not suggest a wave of support that many in the GOP are hoping for based on the failures of Obamacare.

"At this moment, the model predicts that Democrats will win approximately 48 percent of the national popular vote for the House. The model also predicts that Democrats will win 196 seats, for a loss of 5 seats," says John Sides, an associate political science professor at George Washington University who writes for the Post-sponsored blog, The Monkey Cage.

Post political writer Chris Cillizza also agrees that Republicans will see limited gains in the House.

"Viewed broadly, there just aren’t that many districts that a wave could wipe away," Cillizza writes in his blog, The Fix.

The predictions are based on the assumptions that President Barack Obama's approval ratings of 42 percent will hold through election day, that economic growth will continue at less than one percent, and that all incumbents will seek re-election.

"Obviously, all of these things can change, and if they do, so will the model’s baseline prediction," Sides said.

"Obama’s approval could be lower in 2014, for example. Certainly it is on that trajectory. The number of open seats will also grow. So we treat this only as a preliminary forecast," Sides said.


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