Tags: | Florida | Governor | Race | Dead-Heat

Latest: Fla. Gov Race Is a Dead Heat

Monday, 01 Nov 2010 08:06 AM


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The race to be Florida’s governor is a dead heat on the eve of the election, with Democrat Alex Sink, the state’s chief financial officer, getting 44 percent of likely voters and Republican Rick Scott at 43 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, the Republican, has a wide lead in the race for the U.S. Senate with 45 percent of the vote, while Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent, gets 31 percent and Democratic U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek receives 18 percent, the independent Quinnipiac University survey, conducted by live interviewers and concluding Sunday night, finds.

“Marco Rubio is comfortably ahead in the race to be Florida’s next U.S. senator. But the governor’s race is a different story. It is a dead heat and either candidate could be the state’s next governor,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

In the three-way Senate race, Rubio’s victory is built upon 79 percent support from Republicans and 42 percent of independent voters, along with 7 percent of Democrats. Crist gets 17 percent of Republicans, 47 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of independent voters. Meek wins 42 percent of Democrats, 13 percent of independent voters and 2 percent of Republicans.

“Rubio’s center-right coalition is more than large enough to win given the three-way race,” said Brown. “Gov. Crist, elected four years ago as a Republican, gets only 17 percent of the GOP vote and doesn’t come close to the 50 percent of the independent vote he needs to win.

In the governor’s race, Scott wins Republicans 81 – 10 percent while Sink is ahead 83 – 5 percent among Democrats and 47 – 34 percent among independent voters.

Men and women are evenly divided with men at 43 percent for Sink and 42 percent for Scott and women at 44 percent for Sink and 43 percent for Scott.

“In the governor’s race, the victor will be whoever wins a majority of the 9 percent of likely voters who remain undecided at this late date,” said Brown.
“Interestingly, there is no gender gap in the electorate, even though Ms. Sink would be Florida’s first woman governor.”

Sink is better thought of by likely voters, with a 43 – 40 percent favorable rating, while Scott gets a negative 39 – 50 percent rating.

From October 25 – 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 925 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

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