Tech billionaire Tim Draper’s plan to divide California into six states would probably not be beneficial to the Republican Party, the Los Angeles Times
reports, citing a new study.
Draper has submitted 1.3 million signatures
to state election officials in an attempt to qualify for an initiative on the 2016 ballot. He claims that the Golden State, with 38 million residents and 163,000 acres of land is just too vast to govern properly.
"When the people and their state are no longer in sync, and large populations feel that they are not being represented, and when the state fails to provide the services that it promises to our citizens, then we lose our democracy," Draper, a venture capitalist, said in submitting the signatures.
Conservatives who support chopping California into six autonomous sub-states, known as Jefferson, Silicon Valley, North, Central, West, and South California, believe that it would help shake up the "deeply troubled" GOP and motivate Republican efforts in a mainly Democratic state, the Times said.
But a new study shows that under Draper’s division, Democrats would keep most political offices, while Republicans would only make marginal additions in the Electoral College.
that of the six proposed states, three would remain staunchly Democratic while two would lean Republican, and one, South California, consisting of Orange County, San Diego, and the Inland Empire, would be competitive.
Conducted by University of California-Berkeley researchers Ethan Rarick and Jack Citrin, the study also that found that under six entities, Democrats would win seven out of a dozen seats in the U.S. Senate, based on the most recent election returns.
When it comes to presidential elections, Republicans might pick up one or two states, Jefferson and Central California, which would not affect the outcome of even close races, except in the case of a tie, according to the Times.
President Barack Obama ended up with 61.7 percent of the national Electoral College vote in 2012 and 67.8 percent in 2008. But even under six Californias, he would have received 60.2 percent and 66.8 percent, respectively, meaning that he still would have been elected in most cases.
The study said that it is possible that conservatives could win the new marginal "states" of Jefferson, Central, and South California, creating several GOP senators and governors.
But it also notes that "given the ever-increasing diversity of the electorate and the GOP’s difficulty in wooing Latino voters … chopping up the state could produce not merely six Californias but six Democratic Californias."
In other words, slicing up California would not help the GOP beat the state’s ruling Democrats, the Times said.
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