Poll: Ryan Bump Gives Romney Lead in Swing States Ohio, Fla., Va.

Thursday, 16 Aug 2012 08:27 AM

By Martin Gould

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Mitt Romney is leading in three of the four most crucial swing states according to a series of new polls released late Wednesday.

The surveys from Purple Strategies — which covers only so-called “purple” states, those neither strongly red Republican nor blue Democrat — puts the GOP contender up in Ohio, Florida and Virginia, but has President Barack Obama leading in Colorado.

However, all four polls put the two candidates within three percentage points of each other, showing just how close the race for the White House has become.

Does Paul Ryan Really Help Defeat Obama? Vote in Exclusive Poll

The polls are the first comprehensive surveys to have been conducted since Romney chose Paul Ryan as his running mate and suggest he has received a small positive bump from his selection.

Daily tracking polls from both Rasmussen Reports and Gallup also put Romney slightly ahead nationally, although the RealClearPolitics conglomerate Poll of Polls — which does not include the Purple Poll as it was not conducted nationally — still has Obama with a three-point lead.

Overall, the four Purple polls taken together show Romney with a single-point lead of 47 percent to 46, reversing July’s figures when Obama led by 47 percent to 45.

Purple Strategies said Romney has received a huge boost among independent voters, now holding an 11 percentage point lead in that group, up from five points in July.

“Taken as a whole, these data indicate a small bump in the immediate aftermath of the Ryan announcement,” Doug Usher, Purple Strategies’ managing partner for research, said “Nonetheless it is also the first sign of positive momentum for the Romney campaign that we’ve seen in the PurplePoll in the last few months.”

According to Purple’s figures, Romney is up by three percentage points in Virginia, two in Ohio and one in Florida. Obama leads by three points in Colorado. The polls were conducted among 600 likely voters in each state with a margin of error of 4 points.

The overall figures show that Obama and Romney are neck and neck in how the voters see them. The president has a 47 percent approval rate with 49 percent disapproving. Romney’s figures are 45 percent in favor and 48 percent against.

But Ryan holds a significant lead over Vice President Joe Biden in the same category. His figures are 45 percent in favor and 39 percent against, while Biden’s are 41 percent in favor and 48 percent against.

On other questions:

• Obama and Biden hold a double digit lead when it comes to which team will better protect Medicare — except in senior-heavy Florida where they only have a single-point advantage over Romney and Ryan;

• The Romney team wins in all four states when respondents are asked which will bring “real change” to Washington;

• Voters still believe that the economy is getting worse with more than 40 percent in all four states giving that option rather than getting better or staying the same;

• The vast majority of voters — 90 percent or higher in each state _ have already made up their mind which way they will vote in November;

• Voters are evenly divided about the Romney-Ryan budget plans with roughly half in each state believing it will reduce the deficit and help the economy with the other half thinking it will bring tax breaks for the rich and end Medicare.

“While the inclusion of Paul Ryan has provided positive movement for the ticket overall, a debate about Medicare reform appears likely to harm the GOP ticket in the longer term,” said Usher.

Urgent: Does Paul Ryan Really Help Defeat Obama? Vote in Exclusive Poll

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