President Barack Obama received a surprisingly strong bounce after the Democratic National Convention, and now leads GOP challenger Mitt Romney by nearly 6 points according to a new JZ Analytics poll.
The national poll of likely voters shows Obama leading 47.7 percent to 42 percent, and indicates that Romney is not polling well enough among some conservative demographic groups: NASCAR fans, evangelicals, and the so-called “Walmart voters.”
According to JZ Analytics pollster John Zogby, Romney is in a somewhat worse position than GOP nominee Sen. John McCain was at this point in the 2008 campaign.
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“Slightly worse, yes,” Zogby says. “But it’s also fair to say that he’s running against an incumbent who is not posting the greatest numbers in the world.”
Some conservative pundits contend Romney should have a substantial lead in light of the nation’s ongoing economic doldrums under Obama.
“That’s the question: Why isn’t Romney leading by 10 [points]?” Zogby says. “We can speculate on the answers, but that’s the right question.”
Zogby says Romney is not running as well as he should among certain voter segments. Romney leads Obama 53 to 37 percent among voters 65 and older, for example. But Zogby says “he’s going to have to do better” to win.
In a possible indication that Romney has yet to seal the deal with the GOP base, Zogby reports lackluster poll numbers among NASCAR voters, evangelicals, and frequent Walmart patrons -- groups that tend to be reliably conservative.
Romney leads Obama 48.4 to 44.6 percent among voters who shop weekly at Walmart. He narrowly trails Obama among self-identified NASCAR fans, 44 percent to 43 percent.
“That’s a number you would never expect to see,” comments Zogby.
Among “born again” voters, Romney leads Obama by 57 percent to 32 percent. That compares to the 73 percent of evangelical/”born again” voters McCain carried in 2008, according to the Pew Center on Religion and Public Life.
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Zogby envisions plenty of opportunities for Romney to narrow the gap, however. Historically, rosy post-convention polls such as Obama’s soon fade after a couple of weeks.
“This 6 point lead, I think, is basking in a glow for Obama,” Zogby tells Newsmax. “It’s still very, very tight in the battleground states.”
Polls generally indicate Romney did not receive a significant boost from the GOP convention. According to Zogby, Romney’s bounce came earlier, when he named Wisconsin GOP Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate.
The JZ Analytics interactive poll surveyed 1,041 likely voters on September 11 and 12, and has a 3.1 percent margin of error. Zogby says the results indicate Obama still must shore up several weaknesses in order to win.
For example, by a 54 to 34 point margin, voters surveyed say the nation is on the wrong track. And voters say Obama deserves to be re-elected by only a statistically insignificant margin, 46.3 to 45.8 percent.
Zogby also sees slippage for Obama among the so-called “creative class” – the 40 million voters who primarily trade in ideas, technology, intellectual property, and the arts. The poll shows Obama garnering about 53 percent of that vote, compared to over 60 percent in 2008.
Those voters could be decisive difference in swing states such as Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.
Zogby also describes Obama’s numbers as “anemic” among 18 to 29 year-olds. Only 53 percent of those younger voters said they would vote for Obama over Romney -- some 13 points less than Obama’s advantage among that demographic in 2008 against GOP standard bearer Sen. John McCain.
Unlike many pollsters, Zogby uses a polling technique that, at this stage of the election, does not prod undecided voters to name a choice after they initially respond that they are unsure. This may explain why the JZ Analytics poll shows over 10 percent of voters remain undecided – about twice the undecided segment measured in several other recent national polls.
If one in 10 voters is undecided, it would bode well for Romney. Undecided voters tend to break strongly for the challenger over the incumbent.
“He should be in better shape right now, but it’s still very competitive in the battleground states,” Zogby tells Newsmax. “But there are almost two months to go, and he’s running against an incumbent who has his own issues. So anything can happen.”
Other findings from the JZ Analytics poll:
· Romney appears to appeal to a surprising number of 18 to 29 year olds, who may be worried about the spiraling cost of the national debt and Medicare, says Zogby.
· Obama’s edge among African-American voters appears to be holding firm. “Blacks are going to vote heavily for Obama, they’re going to vote in large numbers,” he predicts.
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· One in every five independent voters remains undecided. That suggests both candidates still have a lot of work today to win over the swing-voter segment.
· Romney leads Obama among white voters by 52 to 38 percent, according to the poll. McCain attracted over 55 percent of the white vote in 2008. “And we’re probably looking at a lower percentage of white voters this time than last time. So he’s got a double deficit there,” the pollster tells Newsmax.
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