Polls Show Republicans on Track to Take Senate

Wednesday, 30 Apr 2014 07:40 AM

By Elliot Jager

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A shift in the Iowa U.S. Senate race is part of a trend that shows the GOP may be on track to capture the U.S. Senate in 2014.

Republican senatorial candidate Mark Jacobs has pulled ahead of Iowa Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley, according to a Magellan Strategies poll. In March, Braley held a double-digit lead for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Tom Harkin. The Magellan poll shows Jacobs with 41 percent versus 40 for Braley. A Real Clear Politics average of polls still has the Democrat holding on to a narrowing lead 39.8 percent to 35.2 percent.

The Iowa development comes on top of Republican progress in other Senate races.

In Louisiana, Republican Bill Cassidy is ahead of incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 44.5 percent to 42.3 percent, according to the Real Clear Politics average . A Hickman Analytics poll shows Cassidy at 46 points versus 42 points for Landrieu.

The Alaska Senate race between incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Begich and Daniel Sullivan, former attorney general of Alaska and state commissioner of natural resources, shows the challenger leading with a Real Clear Politics average of 42.3 percent to 42 percent for Begich. A Magellan Strategies survey has Sullivan ahead 46 to 41 points.

In Arkansas, Republican Rep. Tom Cotton has a Real Clear Politics average lead of 45.2 percent to 42.5 percent over incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor. Magellan Strategies has Cotton ahead 46 to 43 points.

The race in North Carolina is close. With Thom Tillis, the state House Speaker apparently set to win the GOP primary on May 6, he and Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan are running neck and neck. Real Clear Politics gives Hagan an average of 43.3 points to 42.5 for Tillis.

There is some prospective good news for Democrats in Colorado and Michigan.

In Colorado, incumbent Sen. Mark Udall is leading GOP challenger Cory Gardner in an average of polls by 43.5 percent to 41.8 percent, according to Real Clear Politics.

In the Michigan race, Democratic Rep. Gary Peters is ahead of former Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land in the Real Clear Politics average of polls by 40.2 percent to 39.8 percent.

There was no recent polling available by Real Clear Politics in the Montana, West Virginia, or South Dakota races, but these are generally seen as likely GOP gains.

In Montana, Republican Rep. Steve Daines is ahead of interim Democrat Sen. John Walsh 51 percent to 37 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports.

Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is ahead of Democrat Secretary of State Natalie Tennant in the West Virginia Senate race 49 percent to 35 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports.

In South Dakota, Mike Rounds, the former Republican governor, is leading Democrat  Rick Weiland 51 percent to 31 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports.

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