Reuters Poll: No Sign of Convention Bounce for Obama

Thursday, 06 Sep 2012 03:39 PM

 

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So far, President Barack Obama has not received much of a bounce yet in popular support from the Democratic National Convention, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found on Thursday.

The latest daily tracking poll found Republican Mitt Romney still clinging to a narrow lead of 45 percent to Obama's 44 percent among likely voters. Romney had led by 46 percent to 44 percent in Wednesday's poll.

"We're not seeing a sort of glimmer, at this point, of a bump," said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark.

The online survey included questions to voters on Wednesday before former President Bill Clinton's well-received speech on the convention floor, so Clinton's influence has not yet been taken into account.

Obama's wife, Michelle Obama, delivered an electrifying speech on Tuesday, and those polled for the Thursday poll would have had the chance to have heard her.

Obama addresses the convention on Thursday night.

Clark said Obama could get a delayed bounce. Romney began his Tampa convention last week behind Obama, 46 percent to 42 percent, before taking a small lead.

"I do think we probably will see a small bump still. Maybe we won't start seeing it until Friday, Saturday or Sunday. I think it will be very modest," Clark said.

The findings are from an Ipsos poll conducted for Reuters from Sept. 2-6. For the survey, a sample of 1,623 American registered voters was interviewed online.

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for all respondents.

While conventions normally produce a tick up in support for candidates, this year seems different with many Americans having already divided into opposing sides.

Clark said Obama needs to lay out a plan for economic recovery in order to appeal to independent voters who may decide who wins the Nov. 6 election, and needs to convince disaffected voters who voted for him last time to vote for him and not stay at home on Election Day.

"This election will be a 'game of inches' and turnout will play a major factor in determining a winner," she said.

For Romney, Thursday's poll was good news. He is holding steady so far despite rampant criticism of him at the convention.

"He's treading water but that's not a bad place for him to be right now," said Clark.

In 2008, Republican candidate John McCain got a bump of about 6 percentage points after his convention in part because he announced his choice of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential candidate just days before the gathering, bolstering enthusiasm for the ticket. Romney announced running mate Paul Ryan three weeks before the convention.

 

© 2014 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.

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