LIGNET, a global intelligence and forecasting service, issued the following summary today:
Erratic Iranian Behavior Points to a Volatile and Dangerous Year
2012 begins with growing danger from Iran due to threats it made over the last week to close the Strait of Hormuz, missile tests, and a claim that it has constructed its first nuclear fuel rod. In this special analysis, which includes the views of former CIA Director Michael Hayden, former US Ambassador John Bolton, and former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela Otto Reich, LIGNET looks at these developments and what they portend for 2012.
Ambassador Bolton believes that Isreal may take pre-emptive action and offered a time frame of when such an attack on Iran may happen.
If the Strait of Hormuz were closed, even temporarily, oil prices would become extremely volatile. Additionally, major oil service providers that do significant business in the Gulf, including Schlumberger, Halliburton, Saipem, Transocean, Baker Hughes, Fluor, Weatherford International, BJ Services Company, Petrofac and China Oilfield Services, may all see disruptions of business activity.
Ambassador Reich, who oversaw Latin America at the State Dept. during the Bush administration, told LIGNET that Iran's growing bellicosity shines a light on relations Tehran has had with Latin American allies, including Cuba and Venezuela. Numerous U.S. companies do business in Venezuela.
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Algeria: Islamists Look to Expand Power in April Elections
The Arab Spring and the revolution in neighboring Libya may be affecting Algeria as political maneuvering weakens the country’s moderate Islamist party ahead of April’s parliamentary elections.
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UAE: Opposition Arrests Reflect Political Volatility
With the rise of Islamist groups in Egypt and elsewhere, Persian Gulf states are trying to stay ahead of discontent, both through intimidation and appeasement. Being all things to all interests, however, is becoming ever more unwieldy as the case of the United Arab Emirates demonstrates.
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Detailed LIGNET analysies are compiled by veteran former CIA analysts and members of other U.S. intelligence services and is available to subscribers. Users may sign up for free summaries or a risk-free trial subscription to access the full LIGNET analysis.
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