Tags: Zogby | Hillary | ahead | PA

Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Clinton Surges Ahead in Pa.

Thursday, 17 Apr 2008 10:02 PM

UTICA, New York – New York Democrat Hillary Clinton had a good day in the Newsmax/Zogby daily tracking poll ahead of Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary, following a strong debate performance in Philadelphia Wednesday night, and now holds a 47% to 43% advantage over Barack Obama of Illinois.

The two-day tracking survey, which was conducted April 16-17, 2008, showed that 10% were either undecided or supported someone else.

The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 602 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

Pennsylvania 4-16/17 4-15/16

Clinton 47% 45%

Obama 43% 44%

Someone else 2% 3%

Not sure 8% 9%

The race appears stable, as Clinton retained a sizable lead in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, while Obama continues to lead by a large percentage in eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia. In the central part of the state, including the state capital of Harrisburg, Clinton leads by eight points.

Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Pollster John Zogby: “No ground really gained or lost by either candidate after Wednesday’s debate. The one day sample had Clinton leading by 4 points. She is solid with Catholics, whites, Hispanics, and older voters. Obama holds his strong support among African Americans, the young , and Very Liberals. What is very significant here is that when we ask these likely primary voters who they would vote for today in the general election, Clinton scores 75% to 9% against McCain, while Obama leads McCain 72% to 14%. The difference? Only 11% of Catholic Democrats and 12% of white Democrats choose McCain in the match against Clinton, while 22% of Catholic Democrats and 18% of white Democrats choose McCain against Obama.”

There was a shift in the genders. Among men, Clinton made up seven points in the last 24 hours against Obama, who still holds a 49% to 41% edge. But Obama also made up a little ground among women, where Clinton now leads by 13 points, down from 15% in yesterday’s tracking poll.

Among the very liberal Democratic Party voters, Obama leads by 19 points, and moved ahead of Clinton among mainline liberals, who narrowly favored Clinton in yesterday’s release. Among moderates, Clinton has pulled ahead, and also leads among conservative Democrats.

A key demographic group that has changed its mind in the last week is Democratic voters age 35 to 54, who just one week ago favored Clinton by a 45% to 40% margin. Now, Obama leads among those voters by a 50% to 42% edge – much like his edge in yesterday’s survey results. Clinton leads among voters older than age 54, while Obama leads among the younger set.

As was the case in yesterday’s release, Clinton holds double-digit leads among whites and Hispanics, while Obama holds a huge lead among African Americans, winning 86% support.

The economy was again cited by likely voters as the most important issue for them in deciding for whom to vote, and Clinton was seen as the better candidate to both improve the personal financial situations of likely voters and the U.S. economy at large.

Clinton was also seen as the candidate who better understands Pennsylvania – 56% said as much, while just 28% said Obama better understands the state, the poll showed.

For a detailed methodology statement on this survey, please visit: http://www.zogby.com

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