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NewsMax Zogby Poll: Clinton Extends New Hampshire Lead

Monday, 01 Oct 2007 06:22 PM

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has extended her lead in the race for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in New Hampshire, capturing 38% support as the contest enters the crucial fall phase, a new NewsMax/Zogby International telephone poll shows.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has slipped slightly but retains a strong grasp on second place with 23% support, while former senator John Edwards of North Carolina faded to 12%, the survey shows. Ten percent said they remain unsure about who to support in the race.

The telephone survey included 505 voters likely to participate in the New Hampshire Democratic primary election. It was conducted Sept. 26–28, 2007, and carries a margin of error of +/– 4.5 percentage points.

Clinton jumped a full 10% since Zogby polling this spring, solidifying an edge she has built nationally heading into the fall campaign. She enjoys a dominant 44% to 22% lead over Obama among women, and holds a healthy 31% to 22% lead over him among men.

Edwards is mired in third place among women with 11% support, and is fourth behind New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson among men. Richardson wins support from 14% among men, while Edwards gets backing from just 13%.

Democrats in New Hampshire – 2007 Sept. 28May 16Apr. 3Feb. 7Jan. 17
Edwards 12%15%23%13%19%
Richardson 8%10%2%3%1%
Kucinich 3%4%1%1%1%
Biden 2%1%2%2%3%
Dodd 2% <1% <1% 1%<1%
Gravel <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Not sure 10% 15% 17% 23% 22%

Obama leads among likely Democratic primary voters under age 30 with 38%, compared to 30% for Clinton. The two are closely matched among those age 30–49, but Clinton holds a strong advantage among those over 50.

Among those age 50–64, she holds a 45% to 18% edge over Obama, with Edwards at 17%, and she wins among those age 65 and older, 45% to 14% for Obama.

Edwards wins just 10% among those age 65 and older, typically one of the strongest voting demographics in primary elections.

Clinton has solidified her leads across the ideological spectrum in the Democratic Party, leading Obama by a 33% to 21% edge among progressives, 42% to 23% among liberals, and 36% to 25% among moderates. Edwards finishes a distant third in all of those categories.

Among independent voters who said they plan to participate in the Democratic primary election in New Hampshire, Clinton also leads, winning 33% support, compared to 25% for Obama and 13% for Edwards. Richardson wins 8% support among independents.

Among Democrats, Clinton’s lead is larger – she wins support from 41%, compared to 21% for Obama and 11% for Edwards.

As news begins to break on how the candidates did at fund–raising for the third quarter of the year, the latest NewsMax/Zogby survey shows that Hillary Clinton’s fund–raising connection to indicted contribution bundler Norman Hsu has had little effect on her overall standing. Hsu raised more than $850,000 for the Clinton campaign and is now under investigation for allegedly violating federal campaign finance laws, but just 11% said that information makes them less likely to support Ms. Clinton.

Further, 11% said that association with Hsu makes them more likely to support her. The vast majority – 78% – said it makes no difference to them in their support of a candidate for President.

Moderates and younger voters appeared to be slightly more concerned about the matter than others, but only marginally so.

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