The nuclear deal agreed with Iran last week is not only unsatisfactory but has put in place a framework that will make war more likely, said Israel's Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon.
In an opinion piece for The Washington Post
, Ya'alon outlined a number of "grave concerns" about the framework's fundamental elements and omissions: an unacceptably short breakout time to build a bomb, an untouched long-range ballistic missile program, and an easing of restrictions on the country's nuclear program in a decade, all while making no requirements on the country to cease its aggression in the Middle East.
"To justify the risks inherent to the framework, its supporters have posited three main arguments: that the only alternative is war; that Iranian violations will be deterred or detected because of 'unprecedented verification'; and that, in the event of violations, sanctions will be snapped back into place," Ya'alon wrote.
"These arguments have one important feature in common: They're all wrong."
Making the case for a better deal, he said it is false to claim that the only alternative to the current framework is war. At the same time, he said, the nature of the current framework as it stands makes war more likely, given it leaves an unreformed Iran stronger, richer, and with a clear path to the bomb.
Ya'alon emphasized that relying on inspections to keep Iran accountable will likely be insufficient given past intelligence failures as a result of that method.
"Twenty years ago, inspectors were supposed to keep the world safe from a North Korean nuclear bomb. Today, North Korea is a nuclear weapons state, and Iran isn't complying with its existing obligations to come clean about its suspected efforts to design nuclear warheads.
"There is no reason to believe that Iran will start cooperating tomorrow, but the deal all but guarantees that it will nonetheless have the nuclear infrastructure it would need to produce a nuclear arsenal. Intelligence and inspections are simply no substitute for dismantling the parts of Iran's program that can be used to produce atomic bombs."
He added that he believes it is misguided to imply that sanctions, once lifted, could readily be restored and become effective in the short breakout times provided in the framework.
"The choice is not between this bad deal and war. The alternative is a better deal that significantly rolls back Iran's nuclear infrastructure and links the lifting of restrictions on its nuclear program to an end of Iran's aggression in the region, its terrorism across the globe and its threats to annihilate Israel," Ya'alon wrote.
"This alternative requires neither war nor putting our faith in tools that have already failed us."
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