How Republicans Will Win the Senate

Tuesday, 09 Feb 2010 10:21 AM

 

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If the Republican Party wins every Senate seat in which it now holds a lead, according to Rasmussen’s polls, it will capture eight Democratic seats while holding all of its own.

The two remaining pickups, to assure control, could be in Indiana, where former Sen. Dan Coats may run against Sen. Evan Bayh, and in California. Even if Coats does not run, former Congressman John Hostettler is behind Bayh by only 44-41 percent. And, in California, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is only 3 points behind Sen. Barbara Boxer.

(This assumes that former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson takes on Sen. Russ Feingold).

In these eight races, the Republican is ahead:

State Contest Latest Polling Date
Delaware Castle vs. Coons Castle +29 Jan.
North Dakota Hoeven vs. unknown Hoeven +20 (vs. Dorgan) Dec.
Arkansas Lincoln. vs. 4 opps Republican (Baker) +19 Feb.
Nevada Reid vs. 4 opps. Republican (Tarkanian) +8 Feb.
Colorado Norton vs. Bennet Norton +14 Feb.
Pennsylvania Toomey vs. Specter Toomey +9 Jan.
Illinois Kirk vs. Giannoulias Kirk +6 Feb.
Wisconsin Thompson vs. Feingold Thompson +3 Jan.




And, in these two states, the results are close:

State Contest Latest Polling Date
California Boxer vs. 3 opps. Boxer (vs. Fiorina) +3 Jan.
Indiana Bayh vs. Hostettler Bayh + 3 Jan.





If Republicans take all 10 seats, they take control in the Senate.

In addition, strong challenges may be shaping up in New York against Kirsten Gillibrand and in Washington State against Patty Murray.

Gillibrand, appointed to fill Hillary Clinton's seat, is very vulnerable, both in a primary against former Tennessee Democratic Congressman Harold Ford and in a general election. If a strong candidate emerges, she and/or Ford could be defeated.

And in Washington state, innovative businessman (and millionaire) Paul Akers is likely to run against Patty Murray. The Washington state senator won with only 55 percent of the vote last time, a poor performance for a three-term incumbent. Akers' company takes new technologies, buys them, and then uses them to create jobs. He should give Murray a tough race which he could end up winning.

But the message of Massachusetts is that any Republican can beat any Democrat anywhere. So don't count out former Congressman Rob Simmons' race against Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal or any possible candidate against Oregon's Ron Wyden and New York's Chuck Schumer.

The Republicans will win the Senate (and the House) — and might win it with a few seats to spare!

© Dick Morris & Eileen McGann

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