“Reality is the beginning not the end . . .”
— Wallace Stevens
Despite the monumental big buck sizzle of presidential campaigns, there comes a point when eventually, inevitably, form and substance must be measured.
The mainstream media and rabid left wing may be totally in the tank for Sen. Barack Obama, and the youthful, charismatic young politician may look and sound good. However, increasingly, his serial flip-flopping smoke-and-mirrors act is showing cracks.
Obama supporters will be quick to suggest such an observation is merely the dream quest wish of an Obama critic scared spitless of what the most liberal president could do to the republic partnered with a liberal super-majority and Nancy Pelosi.
However, recent Gallup polling suggests that the race is way closer than mainstream spin purports. Among likely voters, there is only a 2-point spread.
A new Gallup Poll of likely voters has Democrat Barack Obama with a 49 percent to 47 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain.
That 2-point advantage for Obama is well within the statistical margin of error, and, as Ann Coulter recently observed at Townhall.com, there is increasing speculation about the “Bradley effect.” (You can read it here: http://townhall.com/columnists/AnnCoulter/2008/10/15/eighty-four_percent_say_theyd_never_lie_to_a_pollster.)
“Named after Tom Bradley, who lost his election for California governor in 1982 despite a substantial lead in the polls,” Coulter explains, “the Bradley effect says that black candidates will poll much stronger than the actual election results.”
Coulter maintains that “this is the opposite of racism: It is fear of being accused of racism. For most Americans, there is nothing more terrifying than the prospect of being called a racist.”
But the Bradley effect is just one component of a more substantial dynamic.
The reasons Obama has not been able to close the deal is not because of unstated racism (although when he loses that will be the focus).
Obama will lose to McCain, and it will be close — very close. Unless ACORN and co-conspirators are successful in implementing massive voter fraud, John McCain will win.
Obama will lose because:
1. He is outside the mainstream group think.
a. I have often said most Americans do not subscribe to the gospel of the extreme left or the extreme right.
b. Most Americans remain centrists and jealously protective of their guaranteed inalienable rights.
2. He is THE most liberal (and disingenuous) senator in the country.
3. Unanswered questions and deep doubt.
a. Occidental College records — not released?
b. Columbia College records — not released?
c. Columbia thesis paper — not available?
d. Harvard records — not released?
e. Selective Service registration — not released?
f. Medical records — not released?
g. Illinois state Senate schedule — not available?
h. Illinois State Senate records — not available?
i. Certified copy of original birth certificate — not released?
j. Baptism record — not available?
4. His “redistribution of wealth” gaffe.
5. His waffle on direct talks with real and perceived enemies.
6. A growing concern (even among his supporters) that he will say whatever is necessary but cannot be trusted to do what he says.
Coulter’s research into past elections is significant and telling. She noted that when the polls were wrong (and they often are) they “overestimated support for Democrats, usually by about 6 to 10 points.” And here we are with a 2-point spread.
Notwithstanding the mainstream protestations and speculation to the contrary, Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by about 10 points — despite a pre-election Gallup Poll having Carter leading Reagan “45 percent to 42 percent.”
When Reagan eviscerated Walter Mondale in 1984, all the polls significantly underestimated reality by as much as 15 points.
Ultimately, John McCain will defeat Barack Obama, not because he is Ronald Reagan (for sure he isn’t even close), but because a majority of likely American voters don’t believe or trust Obama.
Yes, sadly, there will be a small percentage of Bradley effect voters who will be the gasoline poured on the glowing embers of Obama’s deceit, duplicity and epic shortcomings.
When Obama loses, it will not be blamed on Obama. It will be blamed on closet racism, “Joe the plumber” myopia, Bill and Hillary’s lukewarm support, GOP dirty tricks, and the phase of the moon and solar activity.
However, Obama’s loss will be in fact a direct function of Obama — what he is (and isn’t), what he said (and didn’t say), and to a lesser degree, angst that a liberal Congress (with a 10 percent approval rating) should not be granted carte blanche from a president who is even more tax-and-spend liberal than them to bleed the American taxpayer even more.
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