Economic Downturn Could Doom Obama Re-election Hopes

Thursday, 02 Jun 2011 12:42 PM

By Matt Towery

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
|  A   A  
  Copy Shortlink
They've tried over and over, the media and government elites who know so much more than the rest of us. They've doggedly done their best to persuade us that, months ago, the economy already had turned the corner back to emerging prosperity.

In February, I wrote a column called "Prepare for the Economic Meltdown." I wasn't then and I'm not now a psychic, or even an economist. Even so, and as I noted in that piece, I used scientific public opinion data to help me read where the economy was going.

Back then, the numbers I saw from our polling suggested that Americans not only were convinced the nation was still in recession, but also that our chances for a full economic recovery in 2011 or even 2012 were not good.

Fast forward to this past week's news, which included one poll showing that two-thirds of the nation still believes we are in a recession. And a Wall Street Journal headline read, "Housing Imperils Recovery . . . Consumer Confidence Falls as Pessimism Grows." Many other news organizations published similar sad stories.

Why is it that many pundits so desperately want us to believe that we were emerging from the recession, that the job market is getting better and that growth is returning to the economy? Perhaps it's because if the economy doesn't start improving — or at least show signs that it soon might — President Barack Obama's odds for re-election could be far longer.

Well, as of the week following Memorial Day 2011, let it be known with no uncertainty that things simply are not getting better. The conventional wisdom has had it that by hunting down Osama bin Laden, President Obama has made himself nearly impossible to beat in 2012. That view is no longer the conventional one. Rightly so.

Part of my theory that even investors might become gloomy this year is based on the simple fact that too many companies have cut their costs to the bone. This has allowed many of them to make impressive gains on their books compared to the corresponding financial quarter in 2010.

But they simply will not be able to continue doing this. They can't just keep cutting off more limbs and expect their corporate "bodies" to remain standing. And the jobs picture that was supposed to be looking prettier is now muddy again.

Some economists believe the nation is on the verge of another Great Depression. This leads to an assessment of the current "conventional wisdom" about the 2012 presidential election. There are plenty of experts with all types of opinions that collectively make up what could be termed "early presidential conventional wisdom."

Among those opinions is the concept that no Republican can beat Obama; that longtime GOP leaders like Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich can't possibly win in this upcoming election's "tea party" environment; and that some new conservative face will be necessary for the Republicans to have even a chance of defeating the president in 2012.

You can take these judgments, lump them with all the other conventional wisdom that's failed to come true over the last year and dump them overboard.

First, remember that as exciting as new blood is in a presidential race, the GOP has almost never won the presidency without a fairly well known commodity as its nominee. Even in 1968 — arguably the greatest single year of discontent in modern American history — it was the worn face of Richard Nixon that delivered the presidency to Republicans.

Yes, tea party conservatives are wary of Mitt Romney. But if he catches fire in the primaries, these same tea partyers will eventually hop onto his bandwagon because of the sudden perception that he has what it takes to actually take down Obama in the general election.

As for Gingrich: Yes, his campaign started out with more fumbles than the Carolina Panthers. But if he wins the first debate later this month, his candidacy could easily be resurrected.

There are bright new names that might emerge during the GOP caucuses and primaries, several of which I have written about. Whichever candidate emerges as the Republican nominee — be it a "new new" personality or the same old thing — will have a genuine chance of toppling President Obama.

And that, too, goes against conventional wisdom.

Matt Towery is author of the book, "Paranoid Nation: The Real Story of the 2008 Fight for the Presidency." He heads the polling and political information firm InsiderAdvantage.

© Creators Syndicate Inc.

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
  Copy Shortlink
Around the Web
Join the Newsmax Community
Please review Community Guidelines before posting a comment.
>> Register to share your comments with the community.
>> Login if you are already a member.
blog comments powered by Disqus
 
Email:
Retype Email:
Country
Zip Code:
Privacy: We never share your email.
 
Hot Topics
Follow Newsmax
Like us
on Facebook
Follow us
on Twitter
Add us
on Google Plus
Around the Web
You May Also Like

Blacks Could Decide 2014 Senate Control

Thursday, 14 Aug 2014 10:35 AM

Many southern states have large African-American populations, and in most of those states black men and women hold consi . . .

Obama Is No Fan of Israel

Thursday, 31 Jul 2014 09:19 AM

With every word spoken and every roll of his eyes, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry makes it clear that the Obama admi . . .

GOP Faces Tough Election Battles

Friday, 25 Jul 2014 09:55 AM

As of late July, we see major conflicts that have flared up in Iraq, the Ukraine and in the ongoing escalating attack on . . .

Most Commented

Newsmax, Moneynews, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, NewsmaxWorld, NewsmaxHealth, are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

 
NEWSMAX.COM
America's News Page
©  Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved