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Giuliani's Presidential Bid Will Soon End

Monday, 21 Jan 2008 09:00 AM

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I believe Rudy Giuliani’s chances of becoming the Republican nominee for president are dim.

When you think about his reasoning, and why he believed he had a chance, it boggles my mind that so many of us were worried.

Rudy’s stated belief was and is that Florida voters will save him. Who in Florida?

The New Yorkers who have emigrated there to spend the balance of their lives in sunny, winterless Florida? Those people — predominately elderly New York Jews, with whom Rudy did well as mayor — are overwhelmingly registered Democrats. I found that out myself when I campaigned in 2004 for President George W. Bush whom I said was the only candidate who understood the threat of international Islamic terrorism and was willing to stand up to it.

I stated on every occasion that I did not agree with him on a single domestic issue, but that the single issue of Islamic terrorism trumped all other issues since it posed an existential threat to Western civilization. I recall how difficult it was for me to persuade Jewish Floridians to cross party lines and vote for George W. Bush.

One particular senior citizen, a woman, stood up and denounced me, telling the crowd that in effect I was asking them to desert Franklin Delano Roosevelt, an act for which she demanded that the crowd figuratively stone me.

My point?

Those New York Jews whom Rudy is counting on are registered Democrats and will not be voting for him in Florida. I predict that Rudy’s presidential run will end on Jan. 29, and those like myself who believe he is a nasty man, will breath easier.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s victory in Nevada was especially important and unexpected. Nevada is a caucus state, meaning that it does not have a secret ballot. Voting is up front with all to see how you are voting. The Culinary Workers’ Union, which is one of the most successful and aggressive unions in the country, endorsed Barack Obama.

Those standing up for Hillary at the Nevada caucuses were pledging their vote in public, taking on the union leadership and risking their good standing with the organization. Nevertheless, the workers did it and Hillary in a three-way race won not merely a plurality, but a majority (50.71 percent). Now it’s on to South Carolina, an even more difficult race. Fifty percent of South Carolina voters are African-Americans, who until recently, were overwhelmingly for Hillary, notwithstanding that Obama is an African-American candidate with a record of achievement — not as good as Hillary’s, in my opinion, due to lack of experience.

Obama is personable, physically attractive, and smart. He appears to be favored by more than 50 percent of South Carolina voters. I expect Obama to win South Carolina and, if he does, it will not be because of racism. During my many years of political involvement, I have observed that in most elections the electorate will, when the choice involves candidates of different race, ethnicity and religion, vote for the person who they believe is most like them in those respects, unless the opponent is seen as substantially better qualified.

So it will not in my book be an act of racism if Obama wins in South Carolina. It will be an act of group identification, practiced by whites, Hispanics and others all over America. Next Saturday, the eyes of the world will be focused on South Carolina. I shall be praying once again for Hillary, who is the most qualified candidate.

Hey, it worked the last time.

Recession Looms

I doubt that any of the proposed economic stimulus plans aimed at preventing the anticipated recession will work. We are in a capitalist economy which is historically cyclical in nature. Our current boom has been a an extended one, and therefore, to a large extent, a recession is inevitable. Most economic stimulus plans have historically come too late to prevent an oncoming recession. They almost always kick in after the rececession is over and the economy is on the rebound. So, the question is how to get any proposed economic stimulus working faster. In the past, many of our citizens, out of fear, did not spend tax rebates and other handouts provided by the government.

I propose giving moderate and low income Americans debit cards with the same amount of cash on it which if not spent within nine months reverts to the government. That will, without a doubt, get money flowing into the economy immediately. If you have a better idea, let me know.

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