I Have been away for two weeks and have had the opportunity to watch the American election develop from afar and to get a new perspective. Here are some thoughts:
The Democrats are crazy to nominate Hillary if already 50 percent of American voters say they will definitely vote against her no matter what. Yes, she could still possibly win with such high negatives, but why take the chance when 2008 is shaping up as a good year for the Democrats? They’d be better off running a dead, embalmed, southern moderate guy.
Some astute observers now believe we are about to have some sort of major economic meltdown. The sub-prime situation, plus the steep volatility on the stock market may indeed portend imminent trouble. If so, what effect does this have on the election? Certainly it hurts the Republicans. But the Democrats are running Congress — so do they get caught up in it, too?
The “throw out the bums” attitude seems to be growing in intensity — daily. It could be the perfect storm — for somebody. But who?
Could a basically unelectable Hillary grease her way in next year because of a weak GOP candidate, a divided and dispirited conservative base, a recession, a war dragging on and other unhappinesses that make her a hold-your-nose-and vote winner?
Is 2008 the year, as has been written about in this space repeatedly, for an independent third candidate to run — and win — by going against both parties for creating the mess we are in? Do not rule this out!
The GOP candidates today: the race is now down to Rudy, Romney, and Huckabee.
Fred Thompson is a bore and has not caught the imagination of conservatives; Huckabee is more acceptable to them. Sam Brownback dropped out, Ron Paul inspires many but isn’t catching up fast enough. Rudy and Romney are both fatally flawed. They are both posers. It is hard to believe the GOP has come down to two who have flip-flopped their way to front-runner status. Who can possibly want either of these people to run anything? And how can a conservative party possibly even contemplate nominating either one?
No wonder Huckabee is doing better and better. He is a totally acceptable-to-everyone alternative — and should not be ruled out as this thing goes on.
Ron Paul is also doing better and better, both in fund-raising and in the latest straw polls, i.e. this past weekend’s Values Voter Summit in Washington. His problem is he is slow out of the gate and isn’t catching up in Iowa or New Hampshire fast enough. But his libertarian views are more and more popular.
The American voter today? Furious over everything; scared about the future; and has yet to find the savior candidate who he/she trusts to figure out where to go in the future.
That is what the 2008 race is all about: finding someone to save America. And that is why an independent third candidate could indeed win next year.
But everything has to break right: both parties in the dumpster with awful nominees, a distressed American electorate and the key ingredient of all: the right candidate. So far he has not appeared on the national scene. But there is still time.
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