Few things are certain in politics, but as close to certain as possible is the prediction that Condi Rice will not be chosen by John McCain or any other GOP nominee should McCain falter (and there is indeed a 40 percent chance McCain will not be the GOP nominee at the end of the September GOP Convention).
This whole campaign for Condi began with former Paul Bremer spokesman Dan Senor on a Sunday morning TV show throwing that out there and claiming she wants to be the running mate to John McCain.
Here is why it will not happen — whether Condi wants it or not:She is one of the architects of the war in Iraq. McCain is the war’s most enthusiastic supporter. Why have two Iraq war hawks on the same ticket, especially when the war is so unpopular?She is a total Bushie who made her name serving two President Bushes, both of whom allowed the Democrats to get back in power. The last thing McCain needs is reminders of this failed administration.She has never run for any public office before. And that is a total negative because she is not a seasoned, experienced campaigner. McCain, by picking her, would have to suffer through her learning curve as a candidate. How would she do under persistent questioning about her views on abortion, religion, taxes, her personal life as a single woman and a million other things that are designed to trip up inexperienced candidates?What does she give the McCain ticket that they do not already have? A state? A region? A constituency? No! She brings nothing to the GOP ticket. African Americans? No way. They vote 90 percent for the Democratic ticket no matter what. If she indeed wants the veep slot — and if this is how she is trying to float her name out there — it shows her lack of political acumen. To have Senor bring it up after Condi attended Grover Norquist’s weekly meeting of conservatives is not the smart way of campaigning for the job.
Now, McCain, if he is the nominee in September, has a number of choices he can make. But he needs to wait to see what the Democratic ticket looks like first because that ticket will signal their electoral strategy.
For example, if Obama wins the nomination and picks Bill Richardson, then we know he is going for the Southwest region: New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, all have major Hispanic voters . . . plus McCain’s own Arizona and California (strongly Democratic anyway).
Or Obama may go for Florida Sen. Bill Nelson and try to take the Sunshine State out of the GOP column.
In that case McCain might take Florida’s popular new governor, Charlie Christ, who helped propel McCain to victory in January in the GOP primary there. That would make Florida the key to the whole general election race.
So, until the Democrats pick both their nominee and ticket — don’t forget that as the "out" party they go first — McCain should wait to make his decision.
As for this odd prediction I keep making that there is a 40 percent chance McCain will not be the GOP nominee: it is a hunch, a feeling that McCain will not make it to the finish line. He does not connect well with people, other than the dozen media flunkies he constantly sucks up to.
Something is going to happen to derail him. A revelation, an event, an unintended circumstance.
America does not elect someone who is at the end of their rope. And McCain is a spent force. Few are for him; his votes will just be anti-Obama or anti-Hillary. There is no enthusiasm for McCain, except among inside-the beltway lobbyists and media types.
So, while he is the presumptive nominee as of now, there are five long months to go.
Don’t be surprised when something happens and McCain is gone — pfffft.
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