Tags: zogby | poll | mccain | florida

Zogby Poll: McCain Leads in Fla., Obama Up in West

Friday, 11 Jul 2008 09:45 AM

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In key battleground states in the South and West, Democrat Sen. Barack Obama currently enjoys leads in Colorado and New Mexico, traditional Republican "red" states that are clearly in play this election season, the latest Zogby Interactive polling shows.

Meanwhile, Republican Sen. John McCain currently leads in Florida, while two other red states - North Carolina and Virginia - could go either way.

Libertarian candidate and former Republican Congressman Bob Barr is having a negative impact on McCain's efforts, particularly in Missouri and Colorado.

These findings are some of the highlights of an extensive package of national online polls that included a total of 46,274 likely voters. Nationally, the poll found Obama leading McCain 44%-38%, with Barr at 6%. A Zogby calculation of the Electoral College count, based on this and other polling, Obama leads McCain, 273-158. A total of 11 states with 105 electoral votes are too close to call and remain undecided.

The national online survey was conducted from June 11-30, 2008. It carries a margin of error of 0.5 percentage points. After nearly a decade in development, the Zogby Interactive survey on a state level was remarkably accurate in the 2006 midterm elections. In 18 U.S. Senate elections polled two years ago, the Zogby online survey correctly identified the winner of 17 of 18 races, and in the 18th race - in Missouri, it was still within the margin of error, though it had Republican Jim Talent winning (he was defeated narrowly by Democrat Claire McCaskill).

Here is a rundown of the battleground states in the south and west:

Where Obama Leads:

New Mexico (5 electoral votes)

Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

Other/Not Sure

49%

33%

9%

2%

8%

Hispanics for Obama and self-identified libertarians for Barr make McCain a distant second. Hispanics make up 30% of the sample, and they choose Obama over McCain, 59%-24%. Libertarians are 10% of the sample, and 64% go with Barr. They join 6% of conservatives who are also with Barr. Obama even leads McCain by 7% among white voters.

2004 Outcome: Bush 50% - Kerry 49%

Colorado (9 electoral votes)

Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

Other/Not Sure

40%

38%

8%

2%

12%

Barr is having a difference-making impact here. He takes 10% of conservatives and 17% of independents. McCain and Obama are tied among white voters. The gender gap between McCain and Obama is a chasm, with McCain up by 22% among men and Obama ahead by 25% among women.

2004 Outcome: Bush 52%-Kerry 47%

Where McCain Leads:

Florida (27 electoral votes)

McCain

Obama

Barr

Nader

Other/Not Sure

43%

39%

6%

2%

11%

This is the rare state where Obama's support among Democrats is not greater than McCain's support among Republicans (both at 77%). Obama loses badly to McCain with voters over 65, 59%-26%. They make up nearly one-quarter of Florida's voters. McCain wins white voters, 52%-29%. Obama takes Hispanics by 11%. Obama's strength is in the southern part of the state, while McCain does better in the north and in the I4 corridor.

2004 Outcome: Bush 52% - Kerry 47%

States With No Clear Leader

Virginia (13 electoral votes)

Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

Other/Not Sure

44%

39%

5%

1%

11%

Defections from Republicans are a key factor. McCain gets the support of 80% of Republicans, compared with Obama's 91% of Democrats. Obama wins 7% of Republicans, and Barr has 5%. Those numbers, coupled with Obama's 7% lead over McCain with Independents, put Obama in a small statewide lead. Obama is showing some appeal with traditional Republican voters. He gets 9% of all self-identified Conservatives, more than Barr's 5%. McCain takes seniors by 34%.

2004 Outcome: Bush 54% - Kerry 45%

North Carolina (15 electoral votes)

Obama

McCain

Barr

Nader

Other/Not Sure

47%

38%

4%

1%

11%

Obama's current edge is powered by his 93% of the African-American vote, which makes up one-third of the sample. McCain's lead over Obama among white voters is 52%-31%. The gender gap favors Obama, as he leads McCain among women by 30% and trails among men by 12%. Economic status is key, as McCain is comfortably ahead among households making more than $75,000; and Obama has even bigger margins among those whose incomes have declined in the past four years. Obama does particularly well in the Raleigh-Durham area, and with those who define themselves as being part of the creative class. He also gets more self-identified conservatives than does Barr, 10% to 5%.

2004 Outcome: Bush 56% - Kerry 44%

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