Tags: sabato | gop | gains

Sabato Predicts Sizeable GOP Gains in 2010

Thursday, 10 Sep 2009 12:13 PM

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Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball published today its initial U.S. House race rankings, detailing district-by-district the likely outcome of the 2010 midterm elections. In a preliminary projection, the Crystal Ball predicts the Republican Party will pick up between 20 and 30 seats in that election, a sizeable gain, but insufficient to retake the majority.

The Crystal Ball reached this conclusion after intense analysis of all 435 U.S. House districts, rating each race on a scale ranging from “Safe Democratic” to “Safe Republican.” The full article can be read here: http://bit.ly/HouseRatings

In 2006, the most recent midterm election, the Crystal Ball predicted that Democrats would pick up 29 seats, the exact number of their actual gain on Election Day. The Crystal Ball was the only publication to correctly predict the pick-up, leading the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism to label the Crystal Ball as the most accurate political website in the nation. Over its lifetime, Sabato’s Crystal Ball has a 98% accuracy rate in predicting U.S. House races, which is unrivaled among political prognosticators.

The Crystal Ball’s race ratings also identify 13 “toss-up” races which will likely be the most fiercely contested in the country: AL-2, ID-1, IL-10, MD-1, MS-1, NH-1, NM-2, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-6, PA-7, and VA-5. The complete ratings chart, with all 104 competitive races, is available here: http://bit.ly/HouseChart

Larry J. Sabato says, “In 2010, a Republican wave may well eliminate many of the Democratic gains in 2006 and 2008. This explains why the Obama administration is pushing as hard as it is to accomplish healthcare reform and other major goals before the 2010 midterm election. If the economy comes back strongly and President Obama’s approval ratings begin to rise substantially before November 2010, the current Republican tide may recede a bit, enabling some of today’s tenuous Democratic House incumbents to hold on.”

Crystal Ball House Race Editor Isaac Wood adds, “The upcoming midterm election looks to be a reversal of recent Democratic gains, potentially in a big way. In spite of all their optimism, however, Republicans will probably fall short of the crucial 40-seat pick-up they need to retake the majority.”

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