Tags: poll | mccain | obama

New Poll: McCain-Obama Race Too Close to Call

Tuesday, 04 Nov 2008 12:53 PM

By David A. Patten

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
|  A   A  
  Copy Shortlink

Sen. John McCain could be much closer in the national popular vote to Sen. Barack Obama than previously recognized, and may even have a slight lead according to a major new poll conducted by a bipartisan polling group.

The George Washington University Battleground Poll released Tuesday shows McCain closing to within just 2 percent of Sen. Barack Obama in the national vote – 50 percent to 48 percent -- well within the poll’s 3.5 percent margin of error.

That would mean the contest is so close that it is statistically impossible to determine, based on the poll, whether McCain or Obama is ahead.

The organizations conducting the poll, the Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners, have strong bipartisan credentials. Tarrance CEO Ed Goeas is a Republican strategist, and Celinda Lake of Lake Research is a Democrat.

Each organization contributes to the survey design, but they interpret the data independently.

The Tarrance Group predicts that the data will lead to an Obama win over McCain in the national popular vote by a margin of 50.2 to 48.3. The Lake Research organization, using the same data, calls it 51.5 for Obama, 46.5 for McCain.

The George Washington University Battleground Poll results differ sharply from other surveys, which show Obama ahead by anywhere from 5 to 11 percentage points nationally.

“We don’t call people on the weekends, which tend to overstate the Democratic vote, causing you to have more pronounced swings in your data,” Tarrance vice-president Brian Nienaber tells Newsmax.

Nienaber adds that Tarrance’s projections anticipate that voters will continue to follow historical patterns in turnout, with minor adjustments.

“We’ve got to go with what has worked for us in the past, and this has certainly worked for us in the past,” he says.

The Tarrance predictions in 1992, 1996, and 2004 were among the most accurate in the country. In 2004, Nienaber says, the organization underestimated the last-minute impact of a news report that President Bush had been arrested for DUI in Maine in 1976, which distorted its results.

Some 800 voters were interviewed Nov. 2 and Nov. 3 for the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll.

The Tarrance Web site adds, “Battleground polls are conducted, not for the benefit of any paying client, but to give the public a look at Americans' opinions and an inside peek at strategic recommendations for both political parties.”

© 2014 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

Share:
  Comment  |
   Contact Us  |
  Print  
  Copy Shortlink
Around the Web
Join the Newsmax Community
Please review Community Guidelines before posting a comment.
>> Register to share your comments with the community.
>> Login if you are already a member.
blog comments powered by Disqus
 
Email:
Country
Zip Code:
Privacy: We never share your email.
 
Hot Topics
Follow Newsmax
Like us
on Facebook
Follow us
on Twitter
Add us
on Google Plus
Around the Web
Top Stories
You May Also Like

Mali's Islamists Withdraw Cease-Fire Pledge

Friday, 04 Jan 2013 13:06 PM

Tens of thousands of Fatah supporters rallied in the Hamas stronghold of Gaza on Friday for the first time since they we . . .

Fmr. CIA Director Hayden: Iran Nuclear Crisis Gets 'Scarier'

Tuesday, 17 Jul 2012 18:11 PM

 . . .

Join Fmr. CIA Director for Special Iran Briefing, Assess the Danger

Friday, 13 Jul 2012 12:27 PM

 . . .

Most Commented

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

 
NEWSMAX.COM
America's News Page
©  Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved