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Newsmax, Zogby Poll Hits Bulls-Eye in Pa. Poll

Wednesday, 23 Apr 2008 02:26 PM

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Pollster John Zogby was right on the mark in predicting a 10-point victory for Hillary Clinton in Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary.

After a Newsmax/Zogby telephone tracking poll over the weekend showed Hillary increasing her lead over Barack Obama in the state, Zogby declared: “If a 10-point victory is the pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it.” And the final Newsmax/Zogby poll results released Monday night showed Hillary with a 10-point margin over Obama.

Clinton did indeed win in Pennsylvania by 10 percentage points, picking up 55 percent of the vote to 45 percent for Obama.

Zogby told Newsmax that the result was “no real surprise. Our final poll going into the election day was Clinton leading by 10 points. And the reason it wasn’t a surprise was undecided voters breaking Sunday and Monday. That was the key question.

“A good chunk of the undecideds were WECMs — white, ethnic, Catholic men. They did not like Hillary Clinton, but they were definitely not going to vote for Barack Obama.

“The only question was, were they actually going to vote. Sunday and Monday we started to detect that they were going to vote, and it broke heavily for Clinton.”

Zogby added that the 10-point victory by Hillary “is enough to keep superdelegates at bay for a while” meaning they wouldn't defect to Obama.

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