Tags: morris | obama

Dick Morris @ 8:09 PM: Don't Jump to Conclusion on Obama Win

Tuesday, 04 Nov 2008 08:09 PM

By Dick Morris

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If you look at Virginia and Kentucky, it looks like a narrow McCain victory.

If you look at Florida and Indiana, it looks like a big Obama win. All four states have less than a quarter of the vote in, so we can't jump to conclusions.

In Virginia, with 19% of the vote in, McCain is winning by 13%. That's about ten points better than it should be for McCain.

In Kentucky, with 23% in, McCain is winning by 15. That's about six points better than it should be for McCain.

But in Florida, with 13% in, Obama is winning by 11 points, which is eleven points better than it should be for Obama.

And in Indiana, McCain is winning by only 3% with 25% in. That's six points less than it should be.

On Senate races, Sue Collins' win in Maine is important. That indicates perhaps that the Dems won't reach 60 votes.

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