Political analyst Charlie Cook says that the GOP could be looking at gains of at least 40 seats in the House in the upcoming midterm elections.
“For the first time, our internal race-by-race model estimates a GOP gain of over 40 seats,” Cook writes in the latest report from the "Cook Political Report."
“We are revising our House forecast to a Republican gain of at least 40 seats, the minimum to give them majority status, and very possibly substantially more.”
Cook says that the polling data for the Obama administration is “more dismal than ever.” He points to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which shows likely voters giving President Obama a low 41 percent approval rating. The poll also favors the GOP on the generic congressional ballot by nine points and shows that likely voters are more pessimistic about the direction of the country than they were in 1994 and 2006.
“Independent voters, wary of one-party control, are breaking just as hard to Republicans as they broke to Democrats in 2006 and 2008, if not harder,” Cook writes. “And last week Gallup found that 54 percent of Republicans, compared with 30 percent of Democrats, reported giving ‘quite a lot of’ or ‘some’ thought to the upcoming midterm elections, and an intensity gap ‘much larger than Gallup has found in the final days before past midterm elections.’ Amid those findings, it's no wonder race-by-race polling is starting to look just as bad. It's no longer a question of whether enough Democratic seats will be in trouble to endanger Speaker Nancy Pelosi's gavel, it's a question of which seats will be in the most trouble by Election Day.”
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