Tags: carville | predictions

Carville Predicts Democratic Scandal Streak

Saturday, 03 Jan 2009 10:50 AM

Democratic political strategist James Carville predicts the Democratic Party -- already burdened by the Gov. Rod Blagojevich scandal -- will suffer more embarrassing scandals in 2009.

Carville, who made his political predictions for CNN.com, said the reason is based on simple math: More Democrats in elected office increases the likelihood of scandal.

"I firmly believe that there are streaks, and that political scandals happen in clusters," Carville said. "The Republican Party had its fair share of scandal and charges of deeply imbedded corruption preceding the 2006 election and leading up to the 2008 elections.

"It doesn't hurt to point out that these types of things are also more likely to harm the party in the majority -- Republicans had more elected politicians (315 Republican officeholders in House, Senate, and state governorships) leading up to 2006.

"With two big Democratic elections in a row, Democrats now hold a larger majority -- 340 U.S. representatives, senators and governors. Simple math and history point to the fact that the more elected officials a party has in office, the more likely its politicians will get caught up in some sort of scandal."

Carville also predicted:

  • A peace agreement between Israel and Syria in the next 18 months.

  • A "near catastrophic ideological rift" in the Republican Party. "There is no obvious Republican leader on the horizon, and the party is caught between its Southern/talk-radio base and the rest of the country on whether they should oppose or cooperate with [Barack] Obama's administration. The combination of the lack of an obvious leader and the general political combustibility of the Republican Party will lead to a dangerous fissure that will plague it until the 2012 election cycle."

    The biggest current Democratic scandal involves Blagojevich, the Illinois governor who has been accused of trying to sell Obama’s Senate seat for money or a high-paying job. He has denied the accusation, but has had his federal security clearance revoked.

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