By Sam Youngman
MANCHESTER, N.H., Jan 5 (Reuters) - Even Rick Perry's
top advisers thought it was over.
After the Texas governor finished fifth in the Iowa caucuses
on Tuesday night, Perry's staff and volunteers gathered around
the bar in a Des Moines hotel to say goodbyes, drink beer and
mourn what appeared to be the end of his quest for the
Republican nomination for president.
Perry had, after all, just said that he would return to
Texas and "reassess" his campaign in a speech that had all the
markings of a withdrawal from the race.
Only it wasn't. Less than 12 hours later, Perry - still in
Iowa - surprisingly declared that he would continue in the race,
and make South Carolina his make-or-break state.
What changed his mind?
Senior Perry aides, friends and staff members told Reuters
that after a restless night, Perry and his staff ultimately
decided there were four reasons the campaign should continue.
Most significantly, his team essentially calculated that
Rick Santorum, who emerged in Iowa as the leading conservative
alternative to former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, isn't
a strong enough candidate to hold that position in future
contests.
Perry's campaign also received calls from supporters in
Texas, who urged the governor not to give up. And Perry aides
determined that their campaign - more so than those of Santorum,
a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, or former House speaker
Newt Gingrich - had the organization and fund-raising abilities
to compete with Romney in the South Carolina primary on Jan. 21.
Finally, Perry decided that he did not want to leave the
race without competing in South Carolina, a state whose
conservative voting base is more in line with his politics than
middle-of-the road Iowa or New Hampshire, which will hold its
primary on Tuesday.
Finishing behind Romney, Santorum, Texas congressman Ron
Paul and Gingrich in Iowa made for "a tough night," said Perry
senior aide Ray Sullivan, who while at the hotel bar late
Tuesday had spoken lovingly of being able to spend the next
night in his own bed in Austin, Texas.
"But in the light of day, there was ample reason and ability
to continue" the Perry campaign, Sullivan said.
A Republican strategist with ties to the campaign said the
Texas governor's staff determined that "there's still going to
be an anti-Romney candidate, and the field to become that person
isn't strong."
The other Republicans competing for the nomination to
challenge Democratic President Barack Obama in November's
election "all have about equal odds to be the anti-Romney," the
strategist said. "If that's true, you might as well stay in to
South Carolina."
Sullivan agreed, saying "We are much better positioned to be
that person than Santorum," whose fundraising operation pales in
comparison with Perry's.
Sullivan said Perry's campaign came to believe that Santorum
did well in Iowa, narrowly losing to Romney, only because
Santorum surged at the right time. And Santorum did so, Sullivan
said, having been "largely unexamined and unvetted."
The scrutiny surrounding Santorum has increased since his
finish in Iowa.
In New Hampshire to campaign for Romney, 2008 Republican
presidential nominee John McCain said that as a member of
Congress, Santorum was a defender of wasteful "pork barrel
spending" when it came to securing federal money for
Pennsylvania.
During this campaign, Santorum "had not really been examined
or exposed" before the Iowa caucuses, Sullivan said.
'MILLIONS OF DOLLARS' AVAILABLE
Perry, who briefly led opinion polls in the Republican race
until poor performances in televised debates drove his numbers
down, still has considerable ability to raise money for his
campaign, Sullivan said.
Perry's campaign raised $17 million during the third
quarter, and has been spending millions on advertising since
then. Spending reports for the months leading into the Iowa
caucuses have not been released, but Sullivan said Perry has
enough of a donor base and "millions of dollars to continue a
strong campaign."
A senior adviser to Romney's campaign said on Tuesday: "When
you're the governor of Texas, you're never broke."
Told of that assessment, Sullivan chuckled and said: "That's
not a bad analysis."
A source close to Perry's campaign said he still could go to
his donors in major Texas cities "and raise $2 or $3 million, at
least."
"Texas is not tapped out," the source said.
Among those who talked with Perry and urged him to stay in
the race was Thomas Graham, a friend and Texas-based political
consultant.
Graham told Perry, who has made patriotism a recurring theme
on the campaign trail, that the governor could do well in South
Carolina in part because of the state's concentration of
socially conservative voters and military personnel.
"As he was leaving the building on Tuesday night, I told
him, 'You've got men and women who have stood up for our country
all over the world, and they're standing up for you. You need to
continue to stand up for them,' " Graham said. "That's what I
said to him."
Perry, an Air Force veteran, has been endorsed by several
high-profile veterans, Graham said, and that will play well in
South Carolina.
"There are 450,000 veterans in South Carolina," Graham said.
"No candidate, including the president of the United States, has
the record on veterans issues that Rick Perry has. And it's a
mistake not to take that message to South Carolina and Florida -
where there are 1.75 million veterans."
Katon Dawson, a Perry supporter and a former chairman of the
South Carolina Republican Party, said Perry also was staying in
the race to run in what Dawson called "the first reliably
Republican state" to vote in the nominating process.
"We haven't had our say down here," Dawson said. "These
South Carolinians are not going to let Iowa pick our president."
(Additional reporting by Karen Brooks in Austin, Texas; Editing
by David Lindsey and Christopher Wilson)
© 2012 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.