Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.
The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.
In the two-way contest in which just McCain and Obama were mentioned in the question, the result was slightly different -- with McCain leading 48.8% to 45.7%.
In a Zogby Interactive survey conducted last weekend, just after the McCain announcement that Palin would join his ticket,
McCain Palin won 47.1% support, while Obama/Biden won 44.6% support.
The interactive survey of 2,312 likely voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 5-6, 2008, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: “Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama.
Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent
Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be “values” voters who like a good value for their money.”
McCain’s favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.
Nearly half – 49% - said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.
Among the vice presidential candidates, 54% said they now hold a favorable view of Palin, while 42% hold an unfavorable view. While 49% have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, 47% hold an unfavorable view of him.
Just one week ago, 23% told Zogby that they did not know enough about Palin to make a judgment about whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view of her – but this most recent survey shows just 4% were unfamiliar with her – another indication that likely voters paid attention to the GOP convention this week, which won the highest television viewership numbers ever earned by an American political convention.
International was the most accurate pollster in every one of the last three presidential election cycles.
In the 2004 presidential election, not only was Zogby’s telephone polling right on the money, its interactive polling also nailed the election as well. In 2006, the Zogby Interactive online polling was on the money in 17 or 18 U.S. Senate races (the 18th was within the margin of error) a record of accuracy that is unmatched in the industry – as no other leading firm even attempts to poll statewide political races using an interactive methodology for public consumption.
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