Poll: GOP Poised to Take Weiner NY Seat

Saturday, 10 Sep 2011 01:57 PM

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President Barack Obama’s unpopularity within his own party could cause the Democrats to lose New York’s 9th Congressional District in the special election Tuesday to fill the seat vacated by disgraced Rep. Anthony Weiner.

A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Republican Bob Turner leading Democrat David Weprin 47-41 percent, with 7 percent undecided. Turner has siphoned off 29 percent of the Democratic vote.

“If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district,” PPP reported. “Obama won 55 percent there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31 percent approval rating, with 56 percent of voters disapproving of him.

“It's a given that Republicans don't like him but more shocking are his 16 percent approval rating with independents and the fact that he's below 50 percent even with Democrats at 46 percent approving and 38 percent disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.”

The Washington Post’s political blog The Fix notes that other factors also are in play.

“Putting all of the blame on the president, however, tells only half (or less) of the story, because the Democrats’ situation wasn’t caused by any one factor,” Chris Cillizza wrote.

“Although the district is Democratic territory, it is trending toward Republicans. It has a large Orthodox Jewish population that is not thrilled with Obama’s positioning on Israel, as well as large pockets of conservative Catholic voters. [It was the site of the single largest point swing between the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections; after Gore won 67 percent in 2000, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts took 56 percent in 2004.]”

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